Winston Peters’ New Zealand First party is starting election year on a high, recording its best-ever result in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll out today.
The poll results, if reflected on election day, would see the current coalition Government re-elected, but National continues to trail Labour in the party vote.
Labour is on 34.4%, up 2.8 points since December, while National is on 31.5%, up 1.5 points.
The largest jump has been recorded by NZ First, up 3.8 points to 11.9%. That is its highest-ever result since the poll began in January 2021.
The Green Party has seen a sizeable fall, down 3.1 points to 7.7%, while Act is down 1.9 points to 7%, and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.1 to 3%.
If converted into seats in the House, Labour would get 43, National 39, NZ First 15, Greens 10, Act nine and Te Pāti Māori would get four.
That would give the centre-right (National, NZ First and Act) 63 seats, compared to 57 for the centre-left (Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori).
In the preferred-Prime Minister stakes, National leader Christopher Luxon has dropped a smidge (0.2) to 19.5%, while Hipkins is up 0.2 to 18%.
Peters gains 1.2 points to 9.7%, Act leader David Seymour is up 1.1 points to 7.1%, and the Greens’ co-leader, Chlöe Swarbrick, drops 2.1 points to 5.5%.
The poll also reveals how New Zealanders are feeling about the country’s direction.
The results show 32.6% (-5.7 points) of New Zealanders say the country is headed in the right direction, while 49% (+4.1 points) say it’s headed in the wrong direction.
The net country direction is down 9.8 points to –16.4%.
The poll, which was conducted between January 14 and January 18, is the first to be released since yesterday’s announcement that the 2026 election will be held on Saturday, November 7.
Luxon said the date took into account international and national events, including sporting events, and noted many recent elections have been held in either October or November.
Hipkins, however, believed Luxon’s choice of a November election date indicated “he was desperate to hold on as long as he can”.
There has been commentary that holding the election late in the year provides more time for an economic bounceback, which could serve in favour of the governing parties.
The political year kicked off this week with the Prime Minister’s State of the Nation speech on Monday, a relatively reflective address with no new policy or announcements. That was followed by National’s caucus retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday, while Labour also held its get-together yesterday.
Annual Ratana celebrations will be held tomorrow before Parliament begins sitting for the year next week.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday, January 14, to Sunday, January 18, 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 7.6% were undecided on the party vote question.
Jamie Ensor is theNZ Herald’s Chief Political Reporter, based in the Press Gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.