Election 2023: Winston Peters, New Zealand First and Green Party big winners in new poll, Labour and National down

Christopher Luxon has surged ahead of Chris Hipkins in the preferred prime minister stakes, but would need to pick up the phone and call Winston Peters to form a Government, according to a new poll.

Labour’s tumble has continued in tonight’s Newshub-Reid Research poll - but only slightly - it’s down to 26.5 per cent, a tiny slide of 0.3 points.

National has also fallen slightly, down 1.8 points to 39.1 per cent.

The Green Party have risen 1.9 points to 14.2 per cent, one of their best poll performances.

Act has fallen 1.3 points to 8.8 per cent.

Crucially, New Zealand First is up 1.9 points to 5.2 per cent - enough to enter Parliament.

In seat terms, National would be on 49 seats, Act would get 11. They would need New Zealand First’s 6 seats to get over the line.

Labour would get 33 seats on those numbers, the Greens would get 18 MPs, a record caucus, and Te Pati Maori would get 3 seats.

In a dramatic reversal, Luxon has shot past Hipkins for preferred prime minister. He is on 24 percent, up 1.5 points. Hipkins has fallen 3.4 points to 19.1 per cent.

It is the first time since the Government changed in 2017 that a National leader is ahead of Labour.

The poll was conducted between 17 September and 23 September 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

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The poll comes on the back of a dramatic political event that will not be captured by the poll: National leader Christopher Luxon’s decision to rule-in working with New Zealand First and Winston Peters.

Luxon said he preferred a National-Act coalition: “I believe that Government would be in the best interests of New Zealanders at this very uncertain time”.

“However, if New Zealand First is returned to Parliament, and I need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour and the coalition of chaos out, I will make that call,” Luxon said.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the next election would be close. He warned that New Zealand First in a National cabinet would be a “handbrake” on climate action.

He joked that for “once in my life” he agreed with Act leader David Seymour, which was on the subject of how New Zealand First would work in Cabinet.

“Any benefits they’ll [Kiwis] get from tax cuts will well and truly disappear from the extra costs they’ll face.”

Hipkins was in New Plymouth announcing Labour’s climate manifesto.

He said he would like the climate change minister to be a Cabinet position in future. Climate Change Minister James Shaw has been outside of Cabinet for the last two terms.

The Herald publishes a “poll of polls”, which simulates an election based on a variety of polls. The most recent version of that will be published tomorrow morning.