Election 2023: National warns ‘very real possibility’ of no-deal with NZ First, sending voters back to the polls

The National Party has ramped up its efforts to try to stop NZ First holding the balance of power by raising the prospect of a second election, warning there was “a very real and growing possibility” National could not get a deal done, or of a hung parliament.

It comes as polls show it is increasingly likely National will need both NZ First and Act to form a government, despite National leader Christopher Luxon’s pleas to voters to deliver a clear two-party hand to him.

National’s campaign chair Chris Bishop said there was a scenario in which the left and right blocs got 60 seats all - “that chance is a real one and growing.”

“The second scenario is when there is essentially a hung Parliament and NZ First is in the middle, but it is just impossible to do a deal between National, Act and NZ First. That is a very real and growing possibility and that would necessitate, essentially, a second election.”

“We are concerned there would be an inability to strike a deal in the interests of the country.

“We will pick up the phone if we have to and try to make it work. But there is a real possibility of the necessity of a second election and it’s a growing one, unless people cast a strong vote for change.”

On the Herald’s Poll of Polls, there is currently a 60 per cent probability National and Act will have to come to an agreement with NZ First to get the 61 seats needed to govern.

There is a 26 per cent chance of a hung parliament in which National and Act have 60 seats, and the remaining parties also have 60 seats. If National could not do a deal and Labour and NZ First refused to negotiate in that scenario, neither side could govern and a second election would be required.

NZ First leader Winston Peters said such comments amounted to treating voters with contempt and there was no need for such “scaremongering.”

“These very concerning comments must be an unfortunate misunderstanding because suggesting the National Party would start scaremongering and threatening to ignore the will of the people on Election Day and ignore the need of our country to form a stable government would be highly troubling to voters.

“It is telling voters National would instead enforce another costly election on the nation purely because of their own political expediency.”

He said Bishop was clearly realising a “surge” was on for NZ First.

“Mr Bishop don’t panic, help is on its way.”

Yesterday, Labour leader Chris Hipkins repeated his vow he would not form a government with NZ First. “The country is fed up by being held to ransom by Winston Peters so if you don’t want that to happen, give your vote to Labour.”

Peters has also repeated his promise that NZ First will not work with Labour after the election.

Yesterday, Chris Hipkins repeated his vow he would not form a government with NZ First. Photo / Cameron Pitney

National Party leader Christopher Luxon yesterday again said he did not want to work with NZ First, but would do it if he had to. He said he was now focusing on National’s vote: “We’re a week out, what happens now is up to them [voters] - vote for the change you want to see happen.”

However, National’s public touting of the risk of a second election indicate National is getting worried about the prospect and is mounting a political push to try to salvage its hoped-for National-Act Government in the last week of the election. Last week, it put up a video of former PM Sir John Key also urging voters to deliver a clear result and vote for National rather than strategically.

Yesterday, National leader Christopher Luxon said he did not want to work with NZ First. Photo / Mark Mitchell

However, it could also serve as a warning to NZ First that it will not cut a deal at any cost.

Asked if National would seek a recount of the party vote in the event NZ First came in just over the 5 per cent threshold, Bishop said it was highly unlikely because of the cost and time: “but you never say never.”

A second election is a worst-case scenario but National are understood to be wary of a minority government situation, in which NZ First might abstain or support only confidence and supply votes, believing that would effectively give NZ First a veto over the government agenda.

In the Poll of Polls, NZ First is currently Labour’s only viable path to reclaim the Government benches.

However, on a packed day campaigning in Auckland yesterday, Hipkins insisted the election was still winnable for Labour, saying it was picking up momentum and had a week to deliver.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins walking through guard of honour in South Auckland. Photo / Adam Pearse

Labour has also let it be known that its own internal polling is showing its support is going up – albeit in increments – and National is slipping.

In the Herald Poll of Polls, Labour is at 26.8 per cent, down from 32.3 per cent in August. National’s polling has lifted marginally over the same period, from 34.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent.

Luxon, who visited Whanganui yesterday, laughed when Hipkins’ claim Labour was on the rise was put to him: “I appreciate he’s got to be an optimist, he’s got to put a brave face on it and do all he can. But New Zealanders want change.”

Hipkins also said it could take some weeks after October 14 for a government to be formed if the election result was as tight as he thought it would be.

He said the count “may take some time” if the result wasn’t obvious on Saturday night, especially if recounts were called for or challenges made.

The writ, issued by the Governor-General to enable the election to be held, has to be returned by November 9.

Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the NZ Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.