Election 2023: Latest political poll revealed as Labour and National compete for centre - Act, Greens and Te Pāti Māori mop up the edges

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon.

National and Act would be able to form a government - just - based on a new political poll released tonight.

National is down two points to 35 per cent and Act is up one point to 12 per cent, according to a 1News Verian Poll.

That would still give National 46 seats and Act 15 – together 61 and enough to form a wafer-thin majority of the 120 seats.

Labour meanwhile is on 33 per cent, down two points since the last 1News Verian Poll in June.

The Greens have had a boost up three points to 10 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori is up one point to 3 per cent.

Those numbers would give Labour 43 seats, the Greens 12 and Te Pāti Māori four – making up 59 seats together.

National leader Christopher Luxon has seen a small two-point bump in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, rising to 20 per cent.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is still ahead but has seen a small drop of one point to 24 per cent.

Act Party leader David Seymour is steady on 7 per cent.

Among the parties outside of Parliament, New Zealand First was steady on 3 per cent, The Opportunities Party (TOP) was up one to 2 per cent, Democracy NZ steady on 1 per cent, Freedoms NZ up one to 1 per cent and ONE Party up one to 1 per cent also.

There remained 12 per cent of respondents undecided.

The poll was run last week between July 8 and 12 with 1000 eligible voters and a margin of error +/- 3.1 per cent.

It covered a small period after Hipkins ruled out a capital gains and/or wealth tax, which Green Party co-leader James Shaw indicated to 1News could be behind their small bump.

“A majority of Kiwis think we should have a fairer tax system and taxing capital gains is part of that.”

1News also revealed poll results on the question: “Do you oppose of support capital gains being taxed when people sell a rental property?”

A majority of 52 per cent said they supported it, 37 per cent opposed and 11 per cent said they didn’t know.

There was little support for such a tax on the family however, with just 16 per cent in support and 75 per cent opposed.

Speaking on the poll, Luxon repeated to 1News the “coalition of chaos” slogan about what Labour, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori represented, in contrast to a “stable” National-led Government with Act.

Hipkins meanwhile accepted some of the sliding support could be due to misbehaving ministers in Michael Wood and Kiri Allan.

“We haven’t got time for any more distractions,” he told 1News.

Hipkins said the big dominance of Act would give it a lot more influence and could see some of “Act’s more radical policy”.

Seymour meanwhile told 1News it was clear there was “momentum for change”.

Today’s poll comes after the last poll they ran in June also had National and Act being able to govern alone.

The then-named 1News Kantar Public poll had National on 37 per cent, up three points on its previous poll two months ago. Labour was on 35 per cent, down one point. Act had remained on 11 per cent.

On that poll, National would have brought in 47 seats. Add to that the 15 seats from Act and it made 62 seats and enough to form a government. A Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori combination only reached 58 seats.

The Green Party had dropped significantly in that June poll, dipping by four points to just 7 per cent - this would result in just nine seats in Parliament. NZ First was steady at 3 per cent and Te Pāti Māori was down one point to 2 per cent.

Two more recent polls told a similar but also extremely tight story between the left and right blocs.

The Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll on Wednesday saw Labour drop two points to 31 per cent and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins take a big hit as preferred Prime Minister, dropping from 29 per cent to 23 per cent.

National was still ahead of Labour but had dropped to 33 per cent - down three points since the last poll in June.

Te Pāti Māori was at 5 per cent (up 1.5 points) for the first time in the poll’s history.

The Act Party was holding firm at 13 per cent and the Green Party had dropped one to 9 per cent. NZ First was on 3.3 per cent - up 1.7.

If that poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament: the Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori grouping would have 60 seats, and National and Act would have 60.

Meanwhile, a Talbot Mills corporate poll last Monday saw Labour tumble five points to 31 per cent, its lowest rating in that poll since at least 2019.

National rose one point to 36 per cent, as did likely governing partner Act which was on 12 per cent.

The Greens were up one point too, on 8 per cent.

Te Pati Maori scored 4.2 per cent, NZ First was on 4 per cent, and TOP was on 2.9 per cent.