Election 2023: Claire Trevett - Labour’s last chances should have run out by now, will the NZ First question become a problem for National leader Chris Luxon?

COMMENT

Labour should have run out of last chances by now and it was bad in the Wednesday poll – but not yet disastrous.

The Newshub Reid Research poll was the first poll taken in the aftermath of Kiri Allan’s car crash and resignation as a minister – and on the tails of the exits of Michael Wood, Stuart Nash and so on and so on.

National had made hay with it - instability is a vote killer.

It is no surprise Labour’s support dropped – by almost four points to 32.3 per cent since the last poll in May when National and Labour were on level pegging and National had bumped up.

While it may seem contrary, it is also no surprise Hipkins’ support stayed relatively steady and in fact bumped up a bit to 24 per cent. Trust in Hipkins is also still miles ahead of trust in Luxon, although not as healthy as it was in May.

There had been a lot of public sympathy for Allan given the circumstances she was facing – and for Hipkins in dealing with it. That was reflected in another poll question, in which more than 50 per cent believed Hipkins handled that well. Nobody likes to see politicking in response to such circumstances.

Labour will take heart from National’s difficulty in getting much gain from that. National ticked up by 1.3 points to 36.6 per cent and would comfortably be able to secure a majority with the Act Party. It will be happy enough with that not to worry too much about Luxon’s popularity slipping a bit.

However, the Green Party picked up about half of Labour’s loss and the other smaller parties – Act, and most notably NZ First – picked up just as much as National.

NZ First was up just above 4 per cent – near enough to the 5 per cent threshold for voters to think it could make it back so their vote might not be wasted.

That is also near enough to give National a headache: the closer NZ First is to returning, the more Luxon will have to contend with his own “coalition of chaos” label being thrown back in its face.

However, Labour’s reservoir of last chances is now partly hanging on Luxon’s ongoing challenge to get voters to warm to him and Hipkins’ ability to hold up his own rankings.

That has ensured Labour has been able to hold onto a sniff of hope as it has gone through the buffeting of that string of ministers leaving, a recession, inflation and the post-Covid period tally of problems.

Luxon’s popularity levels won’t be unduly bothering National or Luxon just now. As long as Labour’s side is dropping and National’s is rising, Luxon is in line for the Prime Minister’s chair. After that point, the preferred PM question tends to resolve itself.

As things stand, National has an easier road ahead of it than Labour.

It is heading into the campaign period from the starting line, while Labour is well behind that line. Labour has to convince people the troubles are over and that it is stable before it can even start to sell itself again.

Labour is not yet ready to panic because it is yet to roll out its new campaign policies (although National’s Nicola Willis tried to help by announcing one for them toward the end of the polling period).

National has already unveiled vast tracts of policy, seemingly with little effect in the polls. However, the Reid Research poll did not include voter reaction to its transport policy, promising new four-lane highways at various points between Northland and Tauranga.

Labour’s powder is still dry. It can only hope that the firing pin is working once it gets going.

Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the NZ Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.