OPINION
It’s the question that a political leader will almost never answer publicly but which is nonetheless quietly discussed inside and outside of the leader’s party: what will do you if you lose?
Reference was made twice yesterday to the end of Chris Hipkins’ leadership of Labour.
The first time was from a ZB reporter just before Labour’s weekly caucus meeting, asking if he would leave Parliament if Labour lost. The Prime Minister’s answer was no more or less than you’d expect. He said he was focused on winning and that he did not have a Plan B.
The next time was in Question Time on Tuesday when National leader Christopher Luxon asked Hipkins: “Are there any members left in his Cabinet who actually support his tax policies or are they just waiting until the election so they can dump him and his desperate economic band-aid politics?”
Hipkins replied: “Well, at least I have a clear tax policy, which is more than the member has, and I think it’s because his co-leader [deputy Nicola Willis] hasn’t figured out how to pay for it yet.”
When Jacinda Ardern stepped down in January, Hipkins was the obvious replacement. At that point, with Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson ruling himself out, it was all about who would be best to maintain the public’s confidence in the Government.
Mt Roskill MP and then Cabinet minister Michael Wood thought about it briefly but gave way to Hipkins.
Hipkins was well-known to the public through previous roles during the pandemic as Covid-19 Response Minister and Health Minister, and relative to other members of the Cabinet, was known and liked.
But being Labour leader in Opposition is another prospect altogether and other factors would be considered.
Those factors would include: How badly Labour lost, what the loss was blamed on - and who survived the election.
There is no particular tradition of resigning if a leader’s party loses, although there would be no repeat of the 1970s. Bill Rowling, who took over as Prime Minister after Norman Kirk died in office, went on to lead Labour unsuccessfully into the 1975, 1978 and 1981 elections.
Mike Moore, who took over as Prime Minister for 59 days in 1990, stayed on as Labour leader for another term after losing power. Despite coming close to making Jim Bolger’s National government a one-term wonder in 1993, Moore was rolled three weeks later by Helen Clark.
Jenny Shipley took over as Prime Minister after rolling Bolger and stayed on after National’s defeat to Helen Clark in 1999 but Shipley herself was deposed in October 2001 by Bill English.
English stepped into John Key’s shoes as Prime Minister in 2016 and stayed on in Opposition for six months after National lost power in 2017 but left as soon as he realised a new generation of potential leaders was getting itchy.
Helen Clark resigned on election night in 2008, having served as Labour leader for 15 years and Prime Minister for nine of those.
Labour rules on leadership have changed twice since then. In 2012 the conference voted to extend leadership decisions beyond a caucus decision to the membership and affiliated unions. David Cunliffe and Andrew Little were elected under those rules.
In 2021, the rules were changed to a compromise under which the primary decision mid-term is returned to the caucus requiring a simple majority. If a leader loses the confidence of the caucus and a replacement cannot be agreed upon within a week, it goes to a wider party vote with the winner required to win 66.66 per cent of the votes cast.
More immediately, under the current rules, the Labour leader must face a caucus leadership vote within three months of the general election on October 14 and win the endorsement of 60 per cent plus one.
In reality, that would be likely to happen before Christmas. If Hipkins led Labour to a third term in Government, that vote would be a foregone conclusion.
If Labour lost, Hipkins would probably have to go quickly.
While Labour’s downward slide in support has coincided with the bad behaviour of four ministers, Hipkins would be blamed for a loss.
At the end of an intense election campaign, Hipkins’ own performance and policy calls would be a more central factor, rather than Michael Wood and Kiri Allan.
If it were a catastrophic defeat, Hipkins could not remain as leader, even as an interim measure.
But a close result could be just as difficult for him. There would be plenty in the caucus and the wider party who would take the view that were it not for his decision to rule out a wealth tax, the party would have won.
Under such a prevailing view, Hipkins would resign as leader before the 60 per cent vote was required under the constitution. He would then have the choice of remaining in Parliament or leaving during the term.
Were it not for the fact that Michael Wood and Kiri Allan trashed their own reputations and were forced to resign as ministers, they would have been the obvious new leadership combination for Labour, as leader and deputy in Opposition.
But Allan’s arrest as Justice Minister after a car crash and Wood’s sloppiness in declaring potential conflicts of interest despite 16 attempts to get him to do so have ruled that out.
Allan will be out of Parliament altogether, having resigned as a candidate. Wood is expected to be back as MP for Mt Roskill but his list ranking at No 45 suggests that rehabilitation will be slow. He could still be a contender for a future leadership position but next term would be too soon.
Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni could take over the leadership as an interim measure.
Grant Robertson, who is not expected to see out the full term whether in government or Opposition, would also be a sound interim leader if the party found itself in a blood-letting crisis.
But the party would need a new generation leadership team before long, preferably one with ministerial experience,
That narrows the field considerably and, of course, in a heavy defeat, some of the best options could be wiped out.
But the strongest combination, assuming their survival, would likely be Kieran McAnulty as leader and Ayesha Verrall as deputy leader.
McAnulty has been a strong performer since first being appointed a minister in June last year.
He was first elected in 2017 as a list MP and is now the Wairarapa MP and No 16 on the party list. Having Verrall, the Health Minister, as his No 2 would create a gender balance which is considered essential in a Labour leadership team. Geographic balance and ethnic balance is considered preferable but not essential.
McAnulty’s majority in 2020 was 6545 and he faces the same National candidate as last time, Mike Butterick. Since 1990, National has won the Wairarapa seat 11 times and Labour three times.
It is more likely to become a marginal electorate but if McAnulty lost the seat, he would need to depend on his list ranking to return. And there are at least nine Labour MPs ahead of him who are likely to need the list to be returned to Parliament.
Verrall, an infectious diseases specialist, was first elected in 2020 as a list-only candidate and is ranked at No 7 on the Labour list. She was put straight into the Cabinet and took over the Health portfolio in January by Hipkins.
Audrey Young covers politics as the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018. She was previously political editor, leading the Herald’s Press Gallery team.
The Resources Minister came to the select committee sporting a Make NZ Great Again hat.