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ANALYSIS
If Chris Hipkins again leads the Government after October’s election, there are likely to be some tough choices to make to accommodate the Green Party. Last week Audrey Young assessed what a National-Act Cabinet could look like. Today she turns her attention to a potential Labour-Greens-Māori PartyCabinet.
There is no question that Labour will need the Greens to have any chance of forming a government for a third term.
And there is no question that the Greens want to be in a full coalition and sitting around the Cabinet table and not be treated as they were in 2017. That has been stated by the leadership.
That would mean shrinking Labour’s current Cabinet, with some of its MPs moving down or out altogether.
But with almost certain retirements by Labour ministers part-way through the term, there would also be a chance to add four or five new ministers.
Any Labour Government would most likely need the support of the Māori Party as well as the Greens. Like the Greens it could drive a hard bargain on policy gains, but It is not clear whether the Māori Party would want ministers as well.
Act and National have accused Labour of not having enough talent to fill the two current vacancies in Cabinet and take it to the normal Cabinet of 20.
But Hipkins has taken the view that adding two ministers and then having to subtract them in three months to make way for Green ministers would be more trouble than it was worth.
And it is easy to overlook the fact that this year, Hipkins has already significantly refreshed the Cabinet with new ministers – the majority of which were not the result of a sacking, defection or resignation.
When he became Prime Minister in January, Hipkins promoted six MPs to become ministers: Ginny Andersen, Barbara Edmonds, Willow-Jean Prime, Duncan Webb, Rino Tirikatene and Deborah Russell. Another two, Rachel Brooking and Jo Luxton, became new ministers as a result of Stuart Nash’s sacking and Meka Whaitiri’s defection respectively.
In the event Labour could form the next government, Hipkins would have some challenges in maintaining a balance between renewal and experience while meeting the heightened expectations of the Green Party in a Cabinet of 20.
The renewal in any Labour-Greens government would initially be provided by the Greens, and by Labour part-way through in a major reshuffle.
The old guard
The resignation of two former rising stars, Michael Wood and Kiri Allan, reinforced the value of the safe hands of the experienced hands, especially Andrew Little.
If Labour is re-elected, voters should expect those safer hands to retain prominent roles in Cabinet for at least a year if not the first half of the term.
After the tumultuous year Hipkins has had since becoming Prime Minister in January, further upheavals should be minimised for the sake of their agencies, many of which have had a high turnover of ministers. Labour’s big renewal could then occur at the first reshuffle.
For that reason, the scenario below includes only a few changes for Labour ministers in the short-term, to adjust workload and to share some areas with the Green Party.
This scenario assumes that up to five Labour ministers would announce their retirements during the next term of Government and relinquish their ministerial roles: Grant Robertson, Kelvin Davis, Damien O’Connor (first elected in 1993), David Parker (2002) and Nanaia Mahuta (1996).
Nanaia Mahuta with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during their joint press conference last month. Photo / Mark Mitchell
That is not to say that they should retire. O’Connor, after a wobbly start, has had a blinder of a term as Trade Minister and Mahuta has found her feet as Foreign Minister, as was evident during the recent visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
But given that Labour’s chances of winning a third term this year are not great, if it did pull it off again, the long-servers would likely see the imperative for renewal approaching a fourth term.
That would see a large number of portfolios changing hands including Corrections, Children, Foreign Affairs, Trade, Environment, Transport, Attorney-General and probably Finance.
Minister of Finance
Grant Robertson is so valuable to Labour he could have Finance for as long as he wanted. But his weariness with politics and nagging health issues were evident when he turned down the chance to become Prime Minister when Jacinda Ardern retired. He has not said he would step down next term - but nor has he committed to doing a full term.
David Parker has effectively ruled himself out of contention from an economic job under Hipkins’ leadership, given his rec