Coalition wins thin majority as Labour and National support drops - poll

The coalition would hold on to office if an election were held today, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll - although the poll could show a hung Parliament if it assumed Te Pāti Māori won back its six electorates, an assumption made by other pollsters.

The poll shows Labour as the largest party on 31.6%, down 1.7 points, while National dropped 0.2 points to 30%.

The Greens were up 1.6 points to 10.8%, Act was up 0.3 points to 8.9% and NZ First dropped a point to 8.1%.

Te Pāti Māori dropped 0.2 points to 3.1%.

The poll will have heads scratching in Parliament because it shows many parties’ support heading in the opposite direction to the recent 1 News-Kantar poll, which showed both National and Labour up and the Greens down.

The polls, however, compared different periods, with the Kantar poll comparing a November/December poll to one taken in early October. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll is monthly, comparing this month’s results to a period four weeks ago.

The coalition would win 61 seats with National on 39, Act on 11 and NZ First on 11.

The opposition would have 59 seats with Labour on 41 seats, the Greens on 14 and Te Pāti Māori on 4.

Curia has recently changed its methodology to assume no overhangs, meaning seats in Parliament are determined purely by the party vote. In the case of Te Pāti Māori, this means the poll assumes at least one electorate seat and brings in three MPs from the list.

Curia also does the National Party’s internal polls.

Some pollsters, like Kantar, include dissident MPs Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris’ seats in the tally, which would bring the tally up to 6 seats.

If that approach were taken with these numbers, it would show a hung Parliament.

National leader Christopher Luxon’s preferred prime minister rating dropped 1.1 points to 19.7%.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins also fell, dropping 2.8 points to 17.8%.

Winston Peters was on 8.5%, Chlöe Swarbrick was on 7.6% and David Seymour was on 6%.

The cost of living was the most important issue for voters up 4.1 points to 32.6%. The economy more generally was on 14.8%, falling 2.8 points.

The poll took a weighted sample of 1000 people, giving it a margin of error of 3.1%. It was conducted between Wednesday 03 December to Sunday 07 December 2025.