Coalition Government would be re-elected on latest poll, but both major parties down

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins are level pegging in the preferred-PM stakes, according to the latest 1News-Verian poll. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The latest 1News-Verian poll has shown support for both major parties slipping, but the coalition Government would be re-elected on these results.

The poll results put National on 34% (down two points) and Labour on 32% (down three points).

Meanwhile, the Green Party is on 11% (up four points), NZ First on 10% (up one point), Act on 9% (down one point) and Te Pāti Māori is on 2% (up one point).

Converting this to seats in Parliament, the coalition would be re-elected with 65 seats. National would get 42, NZ First 12, and Act 11.

The centre-left bloc would get 59. That is Labour on 39 seats, Greens on 14 and TPM on six seats.

In the preferred-PM stakes, National leader Christopher Luxon and his Labour counterpart Chris Hipkins are both on 20%, down three points and one point respectively.

NZ First leader Winston Peters is up a point to 10%, while the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick is steady on 5% and Act’s David Seymour is down a point to 4%.

The poll comes after a difficult week for the coalition, which had to bat away accusations it was introducing a “gas tax” for Kiwis, as the new liquified natural gas (LNG) levy was labelled by the Labour Party.

The announcement of a new LNG import terminal, which the Government said would ultimately lead to lower power bills for New Zealand households, became a debate over whether the levy on power companies was a tax or not.

There were also questions over the Trade Minister’s characterisation of elements of the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement. NZ First isn’t supporting it, meaning Labour’s backing will be pivotal.

The 1News-Verian poll from December had National on 36% (up two points), Labour on 35% (up three points), Act on 10% (up two points), New Zealand First steady on 9% and the Greens were down four points that month to 7%.

December’s poll also had Te Pāti Māori dropping to 1% after months of internal fighting and public disputes that culminated in two of its MPs being ousted.

A year before the party hit 7% amid the highs of the landmark hīkoi to Parliament and haka in the House. At the 2023 election, Te Pāti Māori won six of the seven Māori seats.

There are yet to be any firm signs of reconciliation between the two factions of the party. At Waitangi, party co-leader Rawiri Waititi did appear to extend an olive branch but that was swiftly overshadowed by a supporting haka that one Far North leader said “contradicted” Waititi’s sentiment.

And the party is awaiting the release of the court ruling on whether its move to oust Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi was legitimate.

The latest poll was conducted between February 7 and February 11, 2026, with 1003 eligible voters polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (502). The maximum sampling error is about ±3.1% points at the 95% confidence level.