In his bid to get an early break on the year, one of Luxon’s opening pitches to the good voters of New Zealand was for Eden Parkto hold more concerts, rather than be restricted by its consent.
It was predictably the bit that grabbed the most attention of his state of the nation speech, which otherwise focused on the larger scale but less attention-grabbing goal of getting more foreign investment, more tourists and more students into New Zealand and growing the economy.
The concerts bit was chucked in by way of highlighting his new motto of 2025: “A lot more yes”.
He gave a ‘yes’ to more mining and a ‘yes’ to rich people overseas putting their money into New Zealand, a ‘yes’ to big ports, and to science and gene technology.
That did not mean there was no place for an occasional ‘no’. No, he did not want to talk about the Treaty Principles Bill – for example, and no, he was still not going to Waitangi.
So began the year of Yeah Nah Yeah, which by uncanny coincidence appeared to be the voters’ views of Luxon himself in the first poll of the year.
2025 is an important year for a new government - the middle year of an election cycle and the year they have to deliver things they can boast about to voters in 2026.
That Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll showed they have some way to go. The coalition of National, Act and NZ First were still in the box seat. But Labour was a smidgen ahead of National for the first time in two years and - quelle horreur - National was back below the 30% mark.
That was a boost for Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins but raises questions for Luxon – not least from his caucus who will be very keen to see the National share of the pie grow.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins is back to work on his top half, still in summer on the bottom half at his caucus retreat in Palmerston North. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Summer polls are not necessarily very meaningful, given politics is not front of mind over summer. Nonetheless, it was a bit of a verdict of what the vibe around the barbecues was at the end of the year.
One of the questions it raises is whether the results were a verdict on the coalition government as a whole or just the National part of it.
It may well indicate that the so-called “soft centre” of voters (those who swing from centre left to centre right, depending on the mood) are now back in play.
Neither Act or NZ First had suffered much in the poll, which raised the question whether National had let its coalition partners overshadow them too much in 2024.
National MPs nervous about the polls will be expecting him to step up to boost their support and stop any perception that the party is at the mercy of those coalition partners.
In line with that, Luxon started by trying to reclaim the megaphone from those coalition partners, both of whom are more politically adept and wily than he is.
He returned from his break early and came into the year at a sprint. He used his week of open air to talk about things he wanted to talk about rather than the things he was being forced to talk about.
He defied the traditional groundhog day in the political calendar – the late January Rātana commemorations – and forced an early spring by delivering first a reshuffle, then a caucus retreat and then his state of the nation speech while his coalition partners were still catching flounder.
It secured him a solid week of uncontested attention.
The value to him in that was not so much the absence of Labour from the scene but the absence of his coalition partners.
It would be fair to conclude Luxon considers he may have let Act and NZ First hog a bit too much of the limelight on issues that are important to National in 2024, and does not want it to continue.
So he spent a lot of the week focussed on economic growth. HIs reshuffle was focused on economic growth, as was his state of the nation speech and every media appearance in between.
He mounted a defence of more mining. It was hard not to see it as an attempt to wrestle back the debate on the issue from NZ First’s minister Shane Jones, who had managed to set himself up as the de facto minister of economic development or at least the loudest voice on it.
Luxon also spent a lot of time not talking about Māori issues or the Treaty Principles Bill or the various pet peeves and causes of his coalition partners.
David Seymour delivering his State of the Nation speech. Photo / Alex Burton
The problem with coalition partners is that every time they say something or set out a position, it results in a never-ending stream of questions for the Prime Minister on where he sits.
The Treaty Principles Bill was at least useful in teaching Luxon an early lesson on the need to differentiate himself quickly and clearly on something he does not agree with.
He can expect to be doing that with more and more frequency as time passes.
Luxon’s effort to avoid close encounters with debate on the Treaty Principles Bill will continue next week when he avoids Waitangi – leaving his coalition partners to go there instead.
He has clearly decided he’s said enough, explained his position and is now happy to sit in the back of the car occasionally wondering “are we there yet?” until it’s over.
He too re-emerged last week and revoked his pledge of 2024 not to take the approach of barking at every passing car from the Opposition benches.
Emboldened by the poll result, he said he believed it showed the time had come to start critiquing the government more.
As Luxon had, Hipkins also promised Labour would be focusing on the bread and butter issues of health, the economy, and education rather than “culture wars” and other distractions.
However, part of the fun of vows to not focus on distractions is in forcing your opponent to focus on them instead.
The week-long window of freedom Luxon has had to talk about the things he wants to talk about was over by Friday, when the politicians bowled up to Rātana and Seymour did his state of the nation.
When it comes to his determination to avoid getting bogged down in distractions, Luxon will soon learn the same lesson as King Canute as Parliament returns and Winston Peters and David Seymour start rumbling again in earnest.
