The results show that message had resonance and Hipkins (and Labour MPs who might baulk at the changes Hipkins proposes to make) would do well to bear that in mind. The strong start in the polls gives him more license to do what he thinks he needs to do when it comes to shedding the parts of Labour’s programme that he thinks are holding them back. It will also give his caucus hope: And hope is crucial for discipline.
It’s not a good start to the year for National Party leader Christopher Luxon, who also delivered National an initial bump when he took over a bit over a year ago. He has managed to keep the party in the mid-30s – but has not managed to drag it back into the 40s yet, and his own approval ratings have stagnated.
Luxon won’t be too worried about that yet: The dramas in Labour have meant he has been almost invisible this year so far. Prime Ministers also always have a higher profile when there is a disaster and that is as true of the Auckland floods as anything.
However, it is embarrassing to discover Hipkins is already higher than him as preferred PM.
While Luxon can dismiss that as simply a bump because of the leadership change, what should worry him more is the Newshub Reid Research poll showing Hipkins has a high level of trust – while his own is significantly lower. Trust wins elections. If you can’t get it, you can’t win.
It will be a relief to Labour that Hipkins has so quickly managed to snare the bulk of the support previously enjoyed by Ardern: She had dropped to 5 per cent as preferred PM in the 1 News poll, while he came straight in at 23 per cent. Labour’s supporters have not wasted time with wishful thinking or nostalgia.
On Tuesday, Hipkins will set about trying to consolidate the result. That will come in the form of announcing the next support measures for Aucklanders suffering from the floods – and in a Cabinet reshuffle.
The reshuffle is likely to see big changes in some portfolios where there have been major reforms: Ayesha Verrall is tipped to get health from Andrew Little and Kieran McAnulty to get local government from Nanaia Mahuta. Jan Tinetti is likely to take over Hipkins’ education portfolio. Little is likely to get another significant portfolio: He knows how to get things through.
New faces could come in the form of Barbara Edmonds, Rachel Brooking and Ginny Andersen.
But Hipkins’ first challenge is the Auckland floods.
It has been a bit of a baptism by flooding for him – the good news for Hipkins is the Government’s response to disasters is now almost muscle-memory. Quakes, plagues and volcanic eruptions mean there are now well-established processes and mechanisms to get support out to businesses and those affected.
The bad news is that they all cost money: Sometimes a lot of money.
Hipkins can’t stall from offering that: At the moment Auckland mayor Wayne Brown is taking the flak for the immediate response, but if a PM is awol or baulks from doing what he can in a natural disaster it comes back to bite.
The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll started on the day Hipkins was sworn in as PM – last Wednesday – and ended on Sunday night – the Auckland floods at the very tail end of it. The next polls will tell us whether Aucklanders in particular think he has done enough.
