National Party leader Christopher Luxon has said he will reveal more early next year about what his preferred options are for governing arrangements if he wins the 2023 election.
Act will inevitably be on Luxon’s list – and top of the list. The question is whether it willbe the only party on the list.
It is something of an MMP tradition to try to scaremonger about the potential coalitions on the other side, painting them as some sort of multi-headed Cerberus monster in a bid to turn people off them.
Those on the right take aim at what impact a strong Green influence might have on Labour, while those on the left point to the evils of the measures that Act might push National to.
And the polls, as they stand, indicate that 2023 is shaping up to be a bonanza for those smaller parties.
There is little doubt that whichever large party wins will need at least one off-sider – and that the off-sider will be muscular.
National has so far been unable to fully capitalise on Labour’s collapse in support (and it is a collapse, from 50 to around 33). Nor has it reclaimed all the votes it lost to Act before Luxon took over in 2021.
That could change next year as the political parties start to release more policy – and voters assess exactly what Luxon can offer, or whether Jacinda Ardern can do something to win them back.
But in the meantime, a lot of voters are bobbing in the wash looking for somewhere to put their vote. That always brings opportunities for the smaller parties – and among those already benefiting is NZ First.
It has slowly but surely been rising in the polls.
Illustration / Daron Parton
Leader Winston Peters has been drawing good crowds for his speeches. The party’s increase in polling to 4 per cent indicates it is not simply the curious wondering if it’s a bit of a Last Chance to See show.
It could well be that Peters’ declaration that he will not go with Labour next year has had the desired effect and stoked interest among those wishing he’d gone with National back in 2017. Is all forgiven?
In January, National MPs will meet in Hawke’s Bay for their annual caucus retreat and Luxon will be asked – again – whether he intends to rule Peters and NZ First out.
It was at the mid-summer retreat in Hawke’s Bay in 2019 that a National leader last ruled Peters out. That was Simon Bridges when National was out of government but still polling in the 40s.
Back then the voters who had wanted Peters to side with National in 2017 were still angry.
National was still angry. Luxon wasn’t even around then.
Bridges had little to lose from ripping up Peters’ three-yearly remix of trying to get votes on both sides through claiming he could go with either National or Labour.
Luxon cannot so easily afford to rule out NZ First because he does have something to lose - the job of Prime Minister.
There will be those who hope that Luxon rules out Peters to stymie Peters’ chances of getting back into Parliament.
But there is no real need for Luxon to rule him out ahead of time – especially while NZ First sits below 5 per cent in the polls.
Having now ruled out Labour, Peters will try to make an argument pointing to Luxon’s weaknesses. He will point to Luxon’s inexperience in politics and the inexperience of National’s team in government.
He will put himself up as the sage and experienced one who can be ballast at a critical time in an economic crisis.
He will be pitching his experienced hand as a help to the inexperience of Luxon (and to Act leader David Seymour, who has yet to be a minister).
Peters’ move could hamper Luxon’s ability to say that only a vote for National will ensure a National-led Government. But while Peters has ruled out Labour, he has not ruled out not taking a side at all.
Peters’ statement did not go so far as to say he would go with National.
That leaves open the possibility NZ First could go to the cross benches – leaving whoever forms the Government to deal with him on a case-by-case basis if they can only form a minority Government.
It’s probably safe to say Luxon will be worried about the prospect Peters will get back in, and that he will need him.
But Act will be more nervous.
Even if NZ First is on the cross-benches, National can use it to get to a majority on things Act might not support.
Luxon and Ardern’s bigger challenge is trying to get their polling high enough to ensure they are dominant if they have to share power with a minor party.
There is an argument that it doesn’t matter what the numbers are in the split between the larger party and the smaller, provided that between them they muster up enough support to get over the line.
The argument is true in numerical terms when it comes to winning an election.
But where it matters is once they’ve got there – and then it matters a lot.
That is why the large parties tell people to vote only for them – not for anyone on their side of the game.
The stronger the smaller party, the more the larger party has to give up to make way for them. It means fewer ministerial posts for your own team and less power to reject the support partner’s so-called bottom lines.
And there is no doubt that Act and the Green Party would use that muscle if they had the chance.
As they prepare their election-year offerings it will not hurt the bigger parties to include a few disposable items in their lists to use during negotiations - the Cherry Ripes of the chocolate box which can be discarded without much fuss.
For now though, the leaders will putting that three-yearly cleaning chore back on to their to-do lists: polishing the long spoons to prepare to dine with the devils – or at least the devil.
