Christopher Luxon under pressure as Labour leads National, Chris Hipkins favoured for PM – Editorial

Since taking office, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has struggled to shake the perception that he's a CEO in a political role rather than a leader with a feel for New Zealanders' everyday concerns. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Editorial

THREE KEY FACTS

• Labour has overtaken National with 34.1% in a political poll and Chris Hipkins is now the preferred Prime Minister.
• Christopher Luxon struggles to connect with voters and is seen more as a CEO than a relatable leader.
• Act and NZ First have dipped, while Te Pāti Māori has risen to 6.5%.

The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll has delivered an unwelcome surprise for Christopher Luxon. Labour has nudged ahead of National and Chris Hipkins has leapfrogged Luxon as the preferred Prime Minister. It’s a result that gets politicos buzzing, but should we be reading too much into it?

Polls are snapshots, not prophecies. But this one raises a question National cannot ignore – why isn’t Luxon connecting with voters?

Since taking office, Luxon has struggled to shake the perception that he’s a CEO in a political role rather than a leader with a feel for New Zealanders' everyday concerns. His corporate background – first at Unilever, then at Air New Zealand – has reinforced his credentials in economic management. But politics isn’t just about balance sheets, it’s about connecting with people – and that’s where Luxon appears to fall short.

Labour has climbed to 34.1% (up 2.8 points), overtaking National, which rose slightly to 33.6% (up 1.7 points). The shift may be slight, but it boosts Labour’s morale in Opposition while sending a warning shot to National. More concerning for Luxon, Hipkins has edged ahead of him in the preferred Prime Minister stakes – by 20.7% to 20.3%.

There’s a growing sense that Luxon doesn’t quite “get” the lives of the voters he needs to win over. Whether it’s his stumbling responses on issues like the cost of living or his awkward soundbites that often seem to miss the mark, Luxon hasn’t yet found a way to sound like the bloke at the BBQ rather than the boss at the boardroom table.

Meanwhile, National’s coalition partners are slipping. Act is down to 7.7% (a 2.3-point drop) and NZ First has dipped to 5.1% (down 1.3). The Greens have also taken a hit, falling to 10% (down 3.2 points), but Te Pāti Māori continues to rise, up 2.1 points to 6.5%. Its steady gains suggest it’s increasingly resonating with voters who feel excluded from mainstream politics.

Despite a decisive election loss and a relatively low profile since, Labour’s modest rise suggests voters haven’t written off Hipkins.

Luxon has spent his early months grappling with tough challenges – tightening the fiscal belt, rolling back policies and navigating coalition tensions – none of which make for vote-winning headlines.

This poll means little in the grand scheme of things. It’s too early in the electoral cycle to call it a trend and history tells us that polling bounces – especially this soon after an election – rarely last.

But it does send a signal. Luxon and National will brush it off, but behind the scenes, they should be asking themselves some serious questions. If Luxon can’t cut through to ordinary Kiwis, National’s dream of a long, stable Government could be much shorter than planned.