OPINION
There is, apparently, a "mood for change", and it's driving Wayne Brown to success in the Auckland mayoral campaign. Is this true?
Engineer and property owner Brown has 35 per cent support in the Q+A Kantar poll released today, compared with sitting councillor Fa'anana Efeso Collins' 29 per cent.
Initially, Kantar polled 1000 voters and found Collins was clearly in front. Then Viv Beck pulled out of the contest and Kantar repeated the exercise. Collins' support didn't budge but Brown's climbed sharply.
Other polls released last week showed the two neck and neck. This poll appears to change that.
Does "mood for change" explain it? In some ways, yes. Voters everywhere are exhausted by Covid, worried about inflation and unimpressed with governments' attempts to deal with these things.
We want someone to blame; maybe it's time to give someone else a go.
In Auckland, those things are compounded by the physical disruptions all around us: construction projects, changes to streets, the scourge of ram-raids. At candidate election meetings I've attended all over the city, there's invariably a feeling in the audience that boils down to one thing: make it stop.
Wayne Brown has plugged himself into that feeling. It's not the majority view in every meeting, by any means, but it is usually expressed angrily. And it's a force in this election.
But is it a cry for "change"?
Not in some ways. Brown, at 76, belongs to the demographic that has owned the Auckland mayoralty since we became a "Supercity" in 2010: older, white, male professionals. No change there.
Collins is a 48-year-old Samoan New Zealander. It's hard to think of a more remarkable change for Auckland than to elect a Pasifika mayor who's 30 years younger than his rival.
Both of them want to do things differently at council. Brown says senior managers should be worried for their jobs. He said last week he may not appoint any committees, which means scrapping the mechanism by which councillor workloads are divided up.
And he said he would "quickly replace all the members of all the boards" of the council-controlled organisations (CCOs). I think he'd agree, he relishes the idea of spreading some mayhem.
Collins also says he wants to shake council up, especially at Auckland Transport and in middle management. But he says he'll achieve greater accountability at AT not by trying to sack people but by reinstating two councillor positions on the AT board.
He says he wants to make progress through cooperation and conciliation. Unlike the current mayor, Phil Goff, he gets on pretty well with all the existing councillors and wants to unify the currently fractious divisions.
Two very different approaches to change.
Brown does represent political change: he'd be the first Supercity mayor not to belong to the Labour Party. That's a biggie.
But while Collins is a Labour member, he's not a very dutiful one. He's not a member of Goff's inner circle and he's voted against a number of the mayor's proposals, including the regional fuel tax (RFT).
That RFT vote is a real signifier. Collins opposed the tax because it's regressive: the burden falls hardest on those with the lowest incomes. His vote infuriated party leaders and he must have known it would. But he did it anyway.
Despite some fevered rhetoric, there's no real indication of change from either candidate on rates.
Both have said they will go "laser-like" through the books. Collins has committed to keeping the 3.5 per cent rates rise already in place for the next annual plan but neither of them has made any specific commitments beyond that.
There's not much difference between them on housing, either. Brown says the Government's new density rules don't make sense. Collins is generally supportive of greater density and wants affordable housing mandated into all large projects. But he was part of the large majority on council that voted for significant changes to the density rules.
The Kantar poll asked respondents a series of questions on specific issues, including whether they supported "greater housing intensification in your neighbourhood to help make housing more affordable". The result is a surprisingly even split: 42 per cent in favour and 44 per cent opposed.
When it comes to transport, though, both candidates signal change, but in very different directions.
Collins talks often about climate change and he wants fares-free public transport, to encourage people to catch buses and trains. If the reliability, frequency and coverage of public transport are also improved, that will be a very big change.
And, apparently, not an unwelcome one. In the poll, 51 per cent said they support "free public transport funded by ratepayers". It's become a mainstream policy idea.
Brown never raises the climate issue, unless asked, and he has doubts about public transport. Last week he said that once the City Rail Link opens we should "see how it works" before deciding what else to build. The days of assuming public transport use will grow, he suggested, might be over. Instead, he wants more road space for cars.
Collins wants public transport to ease the pressure on the roads, as has been proven successful with the Northern Busway. Brown advocates a return to the policies that caused the congestion we face today.
Many of the changes to roads are safety initiatives. Brown says he thinks they're going too far. Collins says the high rate of deaths and serious injuries to people hit by cars means we need to update our thinking about road safety.
On transport, Collins wants to accelerate plans that are already approved but not yet widely implemented. Brown suggests he will reverse them. Which of them is the change agent?
It's Collins, if you want climate action and you think people should be able to jump on a bus that takes you quickly and cheaply to where you want to go.
But while he's not part of Goff's team and he wants things done better, he does subscribe to the general direction of travel of Auckland Council.
If, on the other hand, you think the change we need is to get rid of all the people running things, the change agent is Brown. He's the guy to "make it stop", the guy with the promise to return things to the way they used to be.
The recent polls are clear about which voters each candidate needs to focus on in these last days. Both have started pulling out of events they judge might not be high value for them, in order to focus on the voters they think will help them most.
The Kantar poll has Collins stronger among women, Green and Labour supporters and Pasifika. Last week's Curia poll had him strong in the south and in isthmus Auckland, but revealed, surprisingly, he has work to do among Westies.
Kantar has Brown enjoying solid support among Act and National voters, especially those who are older, male and Pākehā, and who don't like cycle lanes or housing density in their suburbs. He's made no secret of wanting to push their buttons and he's been good at it.
For many, it comes down to cycleways. A clear 61 per cent of all Kantar's respondents don't want more road space given to bicycles. Among Brown supporters, it's even higher, at 76 per cent.
This is, without doubt, the demonised issue of the campaign.
And yet Brown himself has been unclear about it. In most campaign meetings he says he's happy with cheap cycleways, made with "paint and some kerbing".
That means cycleways on the roads. But he was photographed last week complaining about an on-road cycleway that fits exactly the prescription he has been calling for.
And what happened to Viv Beck's support? When she withdrew from the race on September 16, saying she wanted to "unify the centre-right vote", she was sitting on 14 per cent. But less than half of those people migrated to Wayne Brown. What about the rest?
In the week following, they remained with Beck. Perhaps they don't want a candidate who seems to relish being a bull in a china shop. Some will vote for her anyway, because her name remains on the ballot. Some may not vote at all. How many will slide over to Efeso Collins?
Votes should be posted by October 4 and received by midday, October 8.
Initial construction work on the next section is set to begin by the end of next year.