Associate Police Minister Casey Costello maintains she wouldn’t change her target to increase frontline police officers by 500 in two years, a week out from failing to meet the target by more than half.
Costello says she prefers setting a more “ambitious” two-year timeframe and risk missing it over allowing more time and seeing the target’s momentum lost as focus turns to the next election.
However, she acknowledges her disappointment in not achieving the item in National and New Zealand First’s coalition agreement, regretting not having a “good news story” to tell as scandal consumes the highest levels of the police executive.
According to a police briefing to Costello on October 23, just 191 officers had been added to police’s constabulary force since November 2023. Latest estimates predicted the total number of officers would reach 10,449 by November 27 this year.
Police projections estimating when the target would be reached have been pushed out several times. While police have grown reluctant to publicly update projections, a Treasury briefing reported by 1News suggests September next year is the latest estimate.
The commitment to grow police’s constabulary force from 10,211 to 10,711 in the two years to November 27 this year has plagued the Government since the coalition agreements were inked in late 2023.
In early 2024, Police Minister Mark Mitchell appeared to favour extending the timeframe to three years before he was reportedly pulled into line by NZ First colleagues who resisted relaxing the target.
That concern had been prompted by a temporary pause in police’s training college between October 2023 and January 2024 while the course was increased from 16 to 20 weeks, as well as persistent recruitment challenges including poaching efforts from Australian states and territories.
Since then, several measures were employed to boost recruitment, including increasing training wing capacity to 100, opening an Auckland training facility, making more people eligible to become recruits and launching multiple advertising campaigns.
Speaking to the Herald yesterday, Costello – an NZ First MP – said her party intentionally set such an “aspirational target” to ensure it was made a “priority”.
“We said right from the outset, let’s put a very strong line in the sand … and that’s why we got the priority and commitment we did to it.”
Costello, who maintained the target was realistic when it was set, defended the party’s opposition to extending the timeframe, claiming it would have been lost in the election build-up.
“I don’t think we would have had the energy and drive and commitment and priority given to it.
“There [are] a lot of competing priorities to deliver everything that the coalition agreement has committed … I just think it was important to ensure that it stayed front of mind.”
However, Costello was less certain a similar commitment would be necessary should her party help form the next Government after the 2026 election.
“There’s no point in having uniforms out on the street if they don’t have the resources, tools, vehicles, buildings and stuff to do their job, so I think you’ve got to weigh up what priorities are and what police need as you go forward.”
Costello said she wasn’t aware of Treasury’s September estimate. Confirming it would definitely be satisfied before the election, Costello said the target could be achieved by May if attrition remained below 5%.
Police leaders are still facing scrutiny following the recent release of a bombshell Independent Police Conduct Authority report that detailed the serious misconduct of members of the former police executive team over how accusations of sexual offending by former Deputy Commissioner Jevon McSkimming were handled.
Costello conceded news of the recruitment target being achieved would have been helpful “in this environment”, but she believed the scandal wouldn’t have a negative effect on recruitment.
“If [officers’] vibe is positive, and their vibe is, then I think it won’t have an impact.”
Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.