1News-Verian poll shows Te Pāti Māori getting boost, National and Act need NZ First

Both Te Pāti Māori and Act have had big gains. Photo / RNZ, Angus Dreaver

Te Pāti Māori has jumped above the 5% threshold in the latest 1News-Verian poll.

National was on 37% while Labour was at 29% – both steady.

The poll showed the Greens sitting on 10%, down 2 points, href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/act-party/" target="_blank">Act at 8% (no change), and New Zealand First on 6%, up 1 point.

Meanwhile, Te Pāti Māori polled at 7% – higher than NZ First and above the 5% threshold. That is a 3-point jump.

This would mean National, Act and NZ First could govern with 63 seats, while the other parties would have 57.

National’s Christopher Luxon is down 1 point to 24% in the preferred Prime Minister ranking, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins is at 15%. Act’s David Seymour is up 2 points to 6% – the same as the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick. Winston Peters is down 1 point to 5%, while Te Pāti Māori’s Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke has registered at 1%.

Earlier, a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll showed both Act and Te Pāti Māori had made big gains, while National and Labour had fallen.

That poll, which was conducted between December 1 and 3, was released on Monday afternoon and showed that based on a Parliament of 120 MPs, National and Act could govern together – without New Zealand First.

Both National and Labour fell 4.6 points compared to the November poll. National is on 34.2%, while Labour is 26.9%.

Act has jumped 4.5 points to 13%, while the Greens have fallen slightly by 1 point to 8.3%.

These poll results show Te Pāti Māori across the 5% threshold, up 3 points to 5.5%, while New Zealand First is down 1 point to 5.4%. There is also 3.3% who support another party.

This is the first Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll since the hīkoi to Parliament. That saw tens of thousands of New Zealanders march in the streets, primarily against the Treaty Principles Bill, stewarded by Act leader and Associate Justice Minister David Seymour. Te Pāti Māori is one of the most vocal critics of the bill and was heavily involved in organising the protest.

On these results, National (44 seats) and Act (17 seats) could just govern with 61 seats. NZ First would receive seven seats.

Labour would have 34 seats, the Greens would have 11, and Te Pāti Māori would get seven. These calculations assume that all electorate seats are held.

It means the current Government parties – referred to in the poll as the centre right – would receive 68 seats, while the centre left would get 52.

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, National’s Luxon was up a touch on 27.1%, up 0.6. Labour’s Hipkins was up 4.4 points to 19.9%.

While Act was up, its leader Seymour was down, falling 1.6 points to 5.8% – the same as NZ First’s Peters, who was down 0.5 – and the Greens’ Swarbrick was at 4.5%, down 0.7.

The polling found the economy (40.2%) was named most as one of people’s top three issues, followed by the cost of living (37.4%), health (34%), education (17.5%), Treaty issues (17.1%), law and order (15.8%) and employment (13.2%).

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday, December 1 and Tuesday, December 3, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.4% were undecided on the party vote question.