With voter disillusionment with the party's direction under Cunliffe's leadership even more pronounced in 2014, even more normally Labour-leaning voters may see simple abstention as the more comfortable option than switching to the Greens, Internet-Mana or New Zealand First
The spectre of low turnout is thus haunting the major parties' strategists like never before. But it is a battle they have been losing for a while.
New Zealand has the dubious honour of ranking third among 20 OECD nations when it comes to the largest drop in voter turnout in percentage terms since the early 1950s. Back then, more than 90 per cent of those New Zealanders enrolled to vote actually did so.
At the 2011 election, turnout hit a new low of just over 74 per cent, having plunged by more than five percentage points from the 2008 level.
Analysis by Statistics New Zealand found that more than 40 per cent of those aged between 18 and 24 failed to vote in 2011. In contrast, nearly 90 per cent of those over the age of 65 cast a vote.
Further research by data analysis company Qrious using results provided by polling company Roy Morgan shows that contrary to popular opinion, National was the preferred option of those non-voters in that lower age group as much as Labour or the Greens when those non-voters were asked to state a choice.
The two major parties have responded by returning to old-fashioned door-knocking combined with much more sophisticated canvassing techniques to identify those who do not vote but who basically remain aligned to the National or Labour cause.
It is below-the-media-radar campaigning. And it works. Labour's saturation canvassing of the Christchurch East electorate in last year's byelection saw the party hold the seat by far more votes than expected. That result had Cunliffe talking of tapping into a seemingly bountiful reservoir of non-voters nationwide who still harbour a residual loyalty to Labour and who are a portion of the so-called "missing million".
That categorisation is a misnomer. True, nearly 800,000 of those enrolled to vote in 2011 did not bother to do so. Most of those would have been serial non-voters. Of more relevance are those who stopped voting in recent elections and who might be persuaded to resume.
The numbers of non-voters increased by nearly 180,000 between the 2008 and 2011 elections. But that was in part due to the growth in numbers on the electoral roll. The actual number of votes cast fell by much less than that - some 97,000. Accordingly, the decline in turnout may be being exaggerated.
One reason why Cunliffe may have seized on the "missing million" is that the 180,000 increase in the non-vote almost exactly matches the number of voters who deserted Labour in 2011.
It is too simplistic to assume, however, that those who shunned Labour did not vote. A fair proportion shifted to the Greens who registered nearly 90,000 more votes than they got in 2008.
Likewise, a fair number of previous Labour voters must have defected to New Zealand First which increased its overall vote by more than 50,000. It would also seem logical to assume that National picked up some of Labour's 2008 vote. The figures are deceptive, however. The drop in overall turnout saw National's share of the party vote increase from 44.9 per cent to 47.3 per cent. National's actual vote count rose by a paltry 5238 - or by less than half a percentage point.
National's worry about turnout saw campaign director Steven Joyce give delegates at the annual conference in July a big hurry-up. He noted that 10 of the 12 seats where turnout dropped the most between 2008 and 2011 were held by National, including such solid-blue fortresses as Botany, Pakuranga and Clutha-Southland.
In making the assertion, Joyce was implying that National-leaning voters were the ones primarily responsible for the drop in turnout in those seats.
That was the case in Botany where the number of National votes fell by 1606. while Labour shed 847. In Pakuranga, the National vote fell by 628, but Labour lost more than 1800.
In Hunua - another National-held seat with a big drop in turnout - the number of National votes actually increased by more than 1100.
Again, the figures are made more complicated by the increase in those enrolled to vote. In East Coast Bays - another safe National seat - turnout dropped by nearly 9 per cent. That was not only due to the number of National votes dropping by just over 600. Labour shed more than 1800 votes. The number of extra names on the local electoral roll also jumped by nearly 4000. But none of that negates Joyce's primary message to National's grassroots when it comes to getting out the vote.
Senior National Party figures believe that the Peters' resurgence along with the "dirty politics" saga and the Kim Dotcom circus may have had the unintended effect of wiping away any sense of complacency amongst National's base vote. Just as likely, Key's survival and the party's still buoyant poll ratings may prompt even more voters to regard Key as bullet-proof - and thus not in need of their votes.
Mission to boost turnout
A union-organised campaign is aiming to motivate 100,000 members to "Get Out and Vote" this election.
The campaign is organised by the Council of Trade Unions (CTU), which represents 41 affiliate unions and is aiming to raise voter turnout after almost one million enrolled voters failed to cast a vote at the last election.
Campaign manager Conor Twyford said the unions were concerned about the implications of a low voter turnout "for democracy in general".
"As a union member it's not just about your industrial rights, but your political, social and economic rights as well, and people totally get that. We're not telling them how to vote, we just want them to get out and vote."
Unions had donated $220,000 for the campaign and more than 5000 volunteers and several paid staff were at call centres across the country, working through a database of 100,000 union members, she said.
Call centre manager Andrea Rushton, who oversees a paid call centre in Auckland's Albert St, said the calls were about establishing a "voting plan" for voters and letting them know the closest place to vote.
Master's graduate and former Goldenhorse frontwoman Kirsten Reade-Morrell said working in the call centre had proven a "brilliant" employment opportunity for her.
"This is the backbone of New Zealand society, what we're doing is delivering a really good, easy service.
"This campaign has actually invigorated people to use the voice that they can use."
One staffer, Pascal Gillies, said they were told not to discuss party politics and instead referred undecided voters to the On The Fence website.
- APNZ
