At some stage the volume of milk supply will decrease and meet the low demand for it as farmers react to the low price they receive at the farm gate.
Then there'll be the period when demand will increase due to the low milk price, which will lead to not enough milk being produced and this will drive the price up.
And so it goes on. However, I'm reluctant to put a date on any of this, let alone a dollar figure on it.
We just have to hope farmers are proactive, their businesses robust enough to cope and that bankers remain supportive and patient.
INDUSTRY UNDER SCRUTINY
Politics are driven by public perception, especially when it comes to animal welfare.
Late last year the industry was fighting a media battle on bobby calves, where the activity of a few farmers and industry operators was shown to be dragging the industry down.
The industry has been proactive for a number of years in this space, working to get all animals to slaughter in good condition, and this footage added extra impetus to find good solutions.
Animal welfare is important right to the end.
Federated Farmers is working with the National Animal Welfare Advisory Committee (NAWAC) on other aspects of animal welfare to make sure solutions are practical, sensible and based on science, not public perception.
We need solutions before the public demands change.
Educating those living in towns and cities about agriculture remains a high priority.
What happens on farm is being constantly questioned by people who do not understand our businesses.
Farmers need to question their practices too, to see if there is another way things can be done that will keep the environment and animals safe, while still providing us with a living and the country with export dollars.
LABOUR ON FARM
This is another hot political potato. We know it is no longer acceptable to have youngsters working on farm for long hours, in poor conditions and for low wages.
Why would I want my girls to do that when they grow up?
There are pockets of unemployment throughout rural New Zealand where there will be people who are suitable to work on dairy farms, but who don't want to because it's not attractive work.
Last year, together with DairyNZ, we released the Workplace Action Plan which shows farmers how to make their farm an attractive place to work by having a balanced work-life environment, fair remuneration for employees and good conditions overall.
Only by doing this can we expect our children to want to work on farm, whether it be ours or someone else's.
If we can't attract our kids to work in the industry, how can we expect someone else to, especially if they're not used to farming work?
We must make dairy farming an attractive place to work, for the good of the industry and New Zealand.
Work and Income are now providing a faster service for farmers who are looking for labour on farm by providing a list of 'suitable' job seekers (the Skills Match Report), I'm working with them to make sure that their idea of 'suitable' is the same as farmers'.
KEY CHALLENGES FOR DAIRYNZ
DairyNZ's work is funded primarily from the milk levy and as milk production is expected to decrease, due to fewer cows and predicted El Niño effects, we can expect DairyNZ will have to work with fewer dollars.
Farmers will still expect it to deliver what they need, however.
First off the rank this year is work on the 'talented people' objective in the Strategy for Sustainable Dairy Farming. We know the Government wants agriculture to soak up more unemployed people.
Therefore, we need to make sure there are schemes that will spark young people's interest in dairy farming and train them to a useful level.
There are some already underway. We want people who are keen to come on farm and learn even more.
Federated Farmers will continue to fight for farmers.
The work we do with regional councils on water, rates and other regulations translates to dollars in farmers' pockets.
Without us, farming would be harder.
