Helen Clark is No 3 in the United Nations hierarchy, and a leading contender to become No 1. Photo / AP
By this time next year, the prospect of Helen Clark succeeding Ban Ki-moon as head of the United Nations should be clear.
Though the former New Zealand Prime Minister has been careful not to declare her hand, her name appears high on the list of potential candidates whenever the post is publicly discussed.
Clark mused about the idea in an interview last year when she was asked if she wanted the job. She replied: "If there's enough support for the style of leadership that I have, it will be interesting."
This week, her office offered the party line. Her spokeswoman, Christina LoNigro, told the Weekend Herald by email: "United Nations Development Program Administrator Helen Clark is very happy in her current position as the head of the UN's development activities, and has no further comment."
Clark's successor at the Beehive, John Key, got on the phone when Clark drew up a CV for the UNDP role after Labour's defeat in November 2008. On April 17, 2009, nine days after resigning from Parliament, Clark was in New York being sworn in to her US$450,000 UNDP job.
The post, number three in the UN hierarchy, put her in charge of a sprawling agency with offices in 170 countries and territories, a US$5 billion budget and a high-profile platform. Despite his different political stripe, Key has pledged to back Clark if she wants a crack at the Secretary-General's job.
Eight men have held the office of "SG" as it is known within the UN. (The seventh, Kofi Annan, suggested the abbreviation stood for "scapegoat".) For months, determined campaigns have been working to make the selection process for the next appointment more transparent, and to put a woman in the 38th floor office.
Last month the UN General Assembly responded by passing a resolution calling for greater transparency, for a list of candidates to be made public and for hearings to meet all the candidates. The assembly also made a call for states to nominate women for the top job.
Britain's permanent representative Matthew Rycroft told delegates: "The days of smoke-filled rooms and of rumours and speculation on the runners and riders for the job are over."
Not quite, says UN expert Professor Simon Chesterman, dean of law at the National University of Singapore. Author of a book on the role of the secretary-general, Chesterman told the Weekend Herald that regardless of UN resolutions, power to affect the outcome remained with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
He considered any change to secret balloting by the five big powers unlikely, which meant they would retain their veto over the candidate.
Much of Clark's work with the UNDP flies under the radar in her own country. But her place in New Zealand's politics is about to get a dusting off with the release of an "authorised" account of her career in a book assembled from interviews for the film Helen.
The film first screened on television in August 2013. Its makers, Claudia Pond Eyley and Dan Salmon, have returned to the hours of interview material they collected to produce an account with a documentary feel.
For Helen Clark Inside Stories the authors spoke to Clark's family, her husband Peter Davis, Labour ministers and loyalists, a few Wellington beltway observers and a scattering of political opponents. Their verbatim comments give a portrait of the "style of leadership" that New Zealand voters passed judgment on for five elections.
They talk, often candidly, about the issues which captured headlines a decade ago: the various "gates" - painter, corn and speed - smears about Clark's sexuality, the foreshore and seabed clashes, the "nanny state" taunts, the "Helengrad" label and the raw hostility our first elected woman prime minister endured - bumper stickers saying "Ditch the bitch" were popular in the South Island before the 2008 election.
The book is not a searing political biography, but serves as a reminder of Clark's relentless ambition to finish the job - any job.
Dame Cath Tizard, a mentor of Clark's, encountered that drive when they took a trip to Mexico with Jonathan Hunt, another confidant. Hunt and Clark were under instructions to persuade Tizard to take the job of governor-general, a task settled, according to Hunt, "on the first evening south of Tijuana".
Tizard says of Clark: "When [Helen] starts out on a journey, whether it is a political campaign or a pyramid, she wants to get to the top."
Now other people might make different choices, the most important thing might be making a lot of money, that hasn't been a motivation for me. I've followed my interests which has eventually led to here and that's what gives me satisfaction more than being a billionaire ever could.
Jenefer Waterworth Clark thinks opponents misjudged her older sister's toughness. "My uncle Tom said, 'People don't know how tough the Clarks can be.' She has a lot of fortitude, stamina and knew where she was going, [she has] faith in herself."
An early test of Clark's leadership came in 1996 when a group of MPs, spooked by Labour's abysmal poll ratings, urged her to step aside. She called their bluff. Her father, George, has never forgotten: "I still go back to the time when they tried to overthrow Helen as the leader and she stood up to them. And I think I was probably more proud of her that day than I have ever been."
Co-author Eyley, an artist and environmental film-maker, says she has long been an admirer of Clark. She attended the 1981 Mt Albert Labour Party selection meeting, which Clark won. For many years they have been neighbours in Mt Eden. To make the film, and assemble the book, the authors drew up a list of people they felt would fulfil their aims.
Three political figures declined to be interviewed - Jenny Shipley, who in 1997 became New Zealand's first woman prime minister when she ousted Jim Bolger, Finance Minister Bill English and Mike Moore, Clark's predecessor as Labour leader.
A fourth, and arguably the most important, was not approached, partly because Eyley says she was told it would be pointless. That person was Heather Simpson, who got on board with Clark 30 years ago and has ridden shotgun with her ever since, though she has barely uttered a public peep. Known as "H2", Simpson was hired from Otago University where she taught economics.
Her style is described in the book by Sir Michael Cullen, who worked with Simpson at Otago and was deputy prime minister to Clark from 2002 until 2008. Cullen says big decisions were often a three-way thing between the leader, himself and Simpson.
"Heather was often the one who went off to see whether various members of the caucus' kneecaps needed a degree of ventilation ..."
Simpson works for Clark in New York, in the role which Davis, Clark's husband for 34 years, says her is last "big job". Now there is the possibility of an even bigger job. Jean Krasno, who chairs the Campaign to Elect a Woman UN Secretary-General, believes Clark "should have a good chance. She is smart, strong and charismatic, all qualities we need in a woman as SG".
A Yale professor and UN expert, Krasno mentioned two other formidable contenders, EU commissioner Kristalina Georgieva and Unesco head Irina Bokova, both from Bulgaria in Eastern Europe. There is a push for this region to supply the candidate.
Hong Kong law professor Simon Chesterman says Clark is one of the most serious candidates at present, perhaps among the top three.
But he cautions: "If she understands the organisation and has built up a reputation for tough but fair leadership, it would give her a head start in making some of the changes that would make the UN function more efficiently.
"Whether it can be made to function more effectively begs the question of whether the P5 and the member states want an SG who can stand up to them. Historically, the answer to that has clearly been 'no'."
In the end, then, it seems big power politics will determine whether Clark, the life-long politician, gets the really big job.
Helen Clark
Inside Stories
By Claudia Pond Eyley and Dan Salmon (Auckland University Press $39.99)
The 6-month-old infant was discovered critically injured last Sunday.