On The Up: Weather-forecasting Rotorua tortoise predicts long hot summer ahead

Rotorua tortoise Herman has woken from hibernation early – her owner says that means a scorcher summer is on the way. Photo / Supplied

Rotorua’s oldest weather forecaster has spoken and the reptile has good news for anyone hoping for a scorcher summer.

At 95, owner Alf Hoyle said he and his family’s pet tortoise Herman are about the same age.

And Hoyle reckoned she was as reliable as ever when it came to predicting the weather.

Like US groundhog Punxsutawney Phil, who prognosticates on the end of winter each year at Pennsylvania’s Gobbler’s Knob, Herman’s annual spring hibernation emergence has become a seasonal predictor in the Bay of Plenty.

Her track record, Hoyle claimed, showed “she’s better than MetService”.

After 65 years of owning Herman, Hoyle said it was impossible not to notice her seasonal habits.

“Her reaction to waking up and going to sleep … it coincided with the sort of weather we were getting”.

Herman spends the colder months tucked into a bale of hay, hibernating early if winter was set to be cold and resurfacing early when warmer days were coming.

She usually woke up around September 6, Hoyle said, but this year she stirred earlier than expected on August 28.

That’s a sign of “long, hot summer”, Hoyle said.

Earth Sciences New Zealand’s seasonal outlook for October to December predicted near-average to above-average temperatures nationwide, with the Bay of Plenty and the rest of the northern North Island likely to be warmer than usual.

Herman’s forecasts only applied to the Bay of Plenty, where she resided.

Asking her to predict the weather for the entirety of New Zealand would be “expecting a bit much”, Hoyle said.

Rachel Hoyle greets Herman the tortoise, then aged about 85, at the beginning of spring in 2004. Photo / Alan Gibson

But Herman has a habit of surprising people.

When Hoyle originally imported Herman from the Welsh Mountain Zoo, he guessed she was about 30, but was unable to confirm this as a fire destroyed the zoo’s records.

Hoyle also assumed the tortoise was male.

Tortoises were “very hard to sex until they get quite mature”, he said.

By the time it was realised Herman was actually female, the name had “stuck”.

She was also known for having a slightly unconventional diet for a tortoise.

While mostly vegetarian, Herman enjoyed a snail or two.

Alongside her diet of strawberries and lettuce, Hoyle believed the snails helped her shell.

Despite tortoises being categorised as slow, Herman once proved she could move well enough when she wanted to.

In her youth, she escaped her pen and made it 3km down the road to the Lynmore shops – a journey that took just three days, much to Hoyle’s surprise.

These days, her adventures occur closer to home.

She spends her time roaming the Hoyles’ 0.2ha (half-acre) Rotorua property and greeting curious local children who come to visit.

And if her early wake-up is anything to go by, Herman will be doing plenty of her favourite activity this summer – basking in the sun.

Animal oracles

• Punxsatawney Phil, the longest-running groundhog seasonal prognosticator in the US, has been picking when spring will arrive since 1887, but a succession of groundhogs are likely to have filled the role over that time.
• Mojave Max is a tortoise in Las Vegas whose burrow emergency marks the beginning of spring weather.
• Paul, an octopus in Germany, became a worldwide sensation for his accurate predictions during the 2010 Fifa World Cup.
• Nelly the fortune-telling elephant at Serengeti Park predicted 30 out of 33 Fifa World Cup matches between 2006 and 2012.
• Sonny Wool, a Dannevirke-born sheep, picked the winner of every All Blacks game in the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

Annabel Reid is a multimedia journalist for the Bay of Plenty Times and Rotorua Daily Post, based in Rotorua. Originally from Hawke’s Bay, she has a Bachelor of Communications from the University of Canterbury.