NZ plans in case bird flu strikes

Crown agencies are preparing strategies for how to cope if a bird flu pandemic reaches New Zealand.

Their scenarios include 20,000 people being admitted to hospital and more than one million needing medical assistance.

The Ministry of Health is co-ordinating the continuing exercise and agencies will begin reporting back to the Government within the next few weeks.

Avian influenza has killed 57 people and infected another 112 in Asia since the end of 2003.

Health experts fear a small mutation in the H5N1 virus could result in it becoming highly infectious and spark a global pandemic.

The Director of Public Health, Mark Jacobs, said yesterday that reporting by Government agencies would help the Health Ministry examine the different responses required across different sectors and enable it to update the National Health Emergency Plan.

"Because no one knows the timing or size of the next influenza pandemic, we are using a range of different scenarios for planning purposes.

"We need to cover as many possibilities as we can to help prepare for pandemic influenza."

Dr Jacobs said it was impossible to know how many people might get sick or die "when" a pandemic influenza virus reached New Zealand because it depended on many factors such as severity and who it affected most.

However, research published in the New Zealand Medical Journal this year suggested a flu pandemic could result in up to 3700 New Zealanders dying, 20,000 requiring hospital care and just over one million needing to see a doctor.

"These figures on the possible extent of a pandemic emphasise why the Government is taking preparedness so seriously."

The World Health Organisation has recommended Governments stockpile supplies of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu - the only treatment which has proven effective against bird flu in humans - for essential workers.

The Government has allocated $26 million to buy 850,000 doses of Tamiflu.

That is enough to give to about one in five New Zealanders.

However, some New Zealanders, particularly travellers and those going on to Southeast Asia, are buying their own supplies.

Tamiflu supplier Roche Products (NZ) said this week that it was unable to keep up with demand.

Pharmacy Guild central representative Dave Ross said stocks had already run out and there was a waiting list of prescriptions to fill.

Tamiflu, which must be prescribed by a doctor, is not subsidised by the Government and costs $75.

"People seem undaunted by price," Mr Ross said. "I'm not sure what fear factor has gone out. Maybe people have pushed the panic button a little early."

But Massey University professor of animal health Roger Smith said people could be wasting their money because it would not be known whether Tamiflu offered protection until clinical trials had been completed.

In Asia, Tamiflu had no beneficial effect on some people, he said.

The drug would only be effective if taken just after coming into contact with the virus.

Sector workgroups working on the bird-flu response plans are being led by senior public servants from Customs, the Treasury, Labour, Education, Civil Defence and Emergency Management, Police, Foreign Affairs and Trade, Economic Development, Social Development, Crown Law and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.

Protect yourself

The Ministry of Health recommends these measures to reduce the risk of infection in the event of a pandemic:

Wash hands regularly with soap. Dry thoroughly.

Cover coughs or sneezes with a tissue. Dispose of it in a rubbish bin.

Avoid contact with others if you are sick. Stay home from work to reduce the risk of passing infection.

Keep a week's supply of food and water at home.

Have paracetamol tablets to reduce the fevers of sick people.

- NZPA