NZ troops tipped for trouble spot

By GREG ANSLEY

New Zealand last night appeared almost certain to send peace-keepers to the violence-racked Solomon Islands.

With New Zealand and Australian officials expected in the Solomons capital, Honiara, today to assess the chaos threatening to unravel the country, key advisers to the Australian Government say there appears to be no way the country can by itself halt its "fatal dive towards state failure".

New Zealand's help is crucial to the success of international moves to end the crisis, a study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says.

In a report on what it described as a "failing state ... with serious consequences for Australia", the institute pointed to the need for more aid, police and possibly troops from Wellington.

"Its active support and participation would be virtually essential to the viability of the [institute's peace] proposal," the report said.

Foreign Minister Phil Goff has already indicated New Zealand's readiness to join an intervention force.

Last night he said: "Both Australia and we have reached the conclusion that we need to explore a higher level of engagement in the Solomon Islands."

The report was released in Canberra as Australia's Shadow Foreign Minister, Kevin Rudd, prepared for talks in Wellington with Mr Goff.

The institute, a think-tank of Australia's foremost strategic minds set up by the Howard Government, warned that a sustained and comprehensive multinational effort would be required to restore law and order and address long-term problems, including endemic corruption and economic chaos.

It said an initial international force of 150 police would be needed to clean up Honiara, backed by a company of light infantry placed on standby and ready to fly to the Solomons at a few days' notice.

The institute said Australia could supply troops from the Townsville-based Third Brigade, the SAS or the Army's Commando battalion.

"But equally New Zealand, Fiji and France all have excellent forces based close enough ... to be called upon at short notice," the report said.

The institute said Wellington was likely to be a willing participant, to protect its key national interests.

"Many people in New Zealand are worried, as Australians are, at the depressing long-term trends in the Southwest Pacific, and about the problems in the Solomon Islands specifically."

The court and prison systems would also be replaced by personnel from donor countries such as Australia and New Zealand for up to a year, and a new administrative body formed to guide the country back to stability.

The same agency would take temporary control of Government finances, the report said.

It added that the rebuilding process could cost around $850 million and last 10 years.

Mr Goff and Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer last night insisted that no decisions had been made on whether police or peace-keeping troops would be sent.

"A scoping team is there and it will be on the basis of their advice what is an appropriate course of action," Mr Goff said.

"It's important that we know we have the backing and support of everyone in the Solomon Islands before we proceed in any direction."

But Mr Downer said aid alone had proved unable to turn the situation around.

"It's almost impossible to assist development in the absence of basic security. Economic activity will not revive without substantial improvements in the law and order situation."

Additional reporting: Stuart Dye