NZ listed companies feeling Donald Trump’s tariff pain

Uncertainty around Donald Trump's tariffs have caused uncertainty for sharemarkets around the world. Photo / AFP / NZX

Sharemarkets around the world have been shaken by the introduction of US tariffs - with some New Zealand companies being particularly hard hit.

Market commentators said the New Zealand-listed companies most exposed to the impact of tariffs were Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Mainfreight, Infratil and Tourism Holdings.

Tourism Holdings has had the biggest share price fall, down 20.33% in a month.

It told the NZX on Thursday that tariffs had weakened its operating environment and hurt consumer confidence.

“As widely reported in media, there has also been a sharp drop in interest for inbound travel to the US.”

Jeremy Sullivan, an investment adviser at Hamilton Hindin Greene, said a lot of travel to the US from Europe, in particular, was being cancelled and not booked.

“People need certainty before they book their trips but it also shows the increasing mistrust towards the US in general - the tariff war risks alienating some of their closest allies.”

Mainfreight was the next most affected, down 14.7%.

Sullivan said that was driven by concerns about a drop in global freight.

Greg Smith, head of retail at Devon Funds, said it might be less exposed than some people thought.

“A trade war would slow activity to/in the US - this is already happening, but the company’s exposure to the US is relatively small - just 8% of earnings in the last year. Australia and New Zealand make up 75% while Europe is 15%.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, which was identified early as a company that could be affected, had dropped 3.74% in a month, but was volatile.

Smith said 60% of Fisher & Paykel’s sales were supplied from Mexico, which appeared to mean they were exempt from tariffs because of the USMCA agreement in Trump’s first term.

“They will probably divert more manufacturing there and also to NZ which only has a 10% tariff.”

Sullivan said about 45% of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s production by revenue was in Tijuana.

“So long as the trade is in line with the North American free-trade agreement then they won’t be exposed to the tariffs.”

He said the company would also have some operational flexibility to ship out of New Zealand.

The possibility of a tariff effect had been identified early, Sullivan said, and the company had a plan in place.

Infratil fell and then recovered after its investor update.

Sullivan said it could be affected by a change of sentiment towards AI.

“A trade war has the potential to affect Nvidia and the other magnificent seven and can have a flow-on effect for data centres.”

He said the company’s solar farms in the US sourced a lot of panels from China and could face tariffs on those.

“It’s difficult for companies to put an exact figure on how it’s going to impact them as it’s changing day by day. That level of uncertainty can lead to delaying decisions, which can be self-fulfilling when it comes to slowing economic growth.”

Smith said overall the US was only $9 billion of New Zealand’s exports, so the country was not as exposed as some.

“A 10% tariff is $900m which is relatively manageable. We are more dependent on China. It’s more a sentiment thing.”