NZ has stronger folk memory of flu horrors

It is hard to gauge, but it seems the prospect of an avian flu pandemic is hitting home harder in New Zealand than Australia.

It may be because terrorism continues to dominate the headlines in Australia, especially after the most recent Bali bombings.

Certainly there is concern in Australia, and that is borne out by pharmaceutical company Roche's statement this week that sales of the drug Tamiflu, said to be effective against bird flu, have quadrupled in the wake of recent bird flu cases in Indonesia.

But the welter of news stories coming out of New Zealand indicate more public awareness of the dangers of bird flu.

Recent statements by Australian federal health minister Tony Abbott show he wouldn't be surprised if this was the case.

He says it goes back to the 1918-19 Spanish influenza outbreak, the biggest the world has seen.

Australia lost 13,000 people in that outbreak when it had a population of about four million, but Abbott said the Commonwealth quarantine authorities had in place measures which prevented loss on a greater scale.

"Certainly New Zealand, which put a much less stringent system of quarantine in place, was impacted very early and had about double the death rate of the flu outbreak in Australia, which is why in New Zealand they have a stronger folk memory of this than we do," he told ABC's Lateline programme.

New Zealand lost about 8000 people from the Spanish flu.

Abbott has been praised for his role in leading contingency planning should there be a global avian flu pandemic, though there has been criticism from health experts as well.

The fear is that a strain of bird flu, H5NI, could cause a human pandemic if it mutates. The bird flu has spread across Asia, infecting a small number of humans, while a strain has been detected in samples from Romanian ducks, the first indication it is present in Europe.

Australia has four million doses of Tamiflu and Relenza, another anti-viral drug, in secret stockpiles ready for any outbreak, perhaps the largest per capita stock in the world.

It is preparing quarantine areas, with up to 500 beds each, near its international airports to isolate people its suspects may have contracted bird flu.

Abbott hopes the country won't have to close its borders, saying in the event of a pandemic people won't travel, but he won't rule it out.

He says there are plans for an escalating health response depending on the virulence of any outbreak. This includes mobile teams, home quarantine and treatment, so that only the very serious cases have to go to public hospitals.

As in other countries, the Australian government is trying to make people aware of the possibility but at the same time not to alarm them. Abbott says if it does happen it could be "a worldwide biological version of the Indian Ocean tsunami". However, he has rated the chances of a pandemic at 10 percent.

"I don't want to underestimate the potential seriousness of this," Abbott told Lateline. "On the other hand I don't want people to be heading for the hills so to speak, in anticipation of something that might never happen. "

Australian researchers plan to test a flu vaccine on 2000 toddlers in childcare centres, fearing that children's lower immunity could promote the spread of the virus in the event of a major outbreak. The exercise would be part of a $A7.5 million ($NZ8.2 million) research programme announced by Abbott last month to look at urgent medical issues.

Despite these preparations, some think the government is being too tight-fisted over the flu vaccines.

As in New Zealand, Tamiflu is available by prescription only. The National Drugs and Poisons Scheduling Committee, which recommends which drugs should be available over the counter, reaffirmed its prescription only status this week.

Roche has criticised that as "a missed opportunity to seize an important public health initiative" and warned that delays in taking the drug reduced its effectiveness.

Graeme Laver, a molecular biologist, doesn't think Australia is at all well prepared.

"The drugs should be available for people to get quickly," he told Melbourne's The Age newspaper. "Imagine if one of your children develops fever and aches and pains, and you know the bird flu is around. You will want that drug now. But if it is all locked up...... "

He said most people in his field have their own supply of vaccine. Ordinary folk though are only likely to get a prescription if they are travelling overseas.

- NZPA