Northland byelection: John Key relies on big National turnout

Mark Osborne with John Key and Conor Willy, 15, at the Blah Blah Blah Cafe in Dargaville. Photo / Dean Purcell

Second poll shows Mark Osborne well behind Peters

Prime Minister John Key is relying on National voters flocking to the polls and Labour voters staying home to win the Northland byelection as he hit the electorate in a last-ditch bid to stop National's vote haemorrhaging to Winston Peters.

Mr Key flew up to Northland yesterday as the party faces losing the seat it has held for decades. National's plight was highlighted by a second poll yesterday showing its candidate, Mark Osborne, trailing well behind Mr Peters.

The One News Colmar Brunton poll had Mr Peters on 54 per cent support while Mr Osborne was on 36 per cent. However, National's support remained high on 49 per cent and much of Mr Peters' support was from Labour supporters rather than National.

The poll showed 69 per cent of Labour voters were supporting Mr Peters, while 15 per cent of National voters were also backing Mr Peters. However, 80 per cent of National supporters were sticking with their candidate, Mr Osborne. That defies Mr Peters' claim that most of his support was from National and it could be National's saving grace - it is relying on many of those Labour and Green supporters not bothering to vote because their party is not in the race. Mr Key denied his visit for the final days was desperation.

"We are in a byelection, we are fighting hard, we know we're up against it. You've got all the other parties coalescing round Winston but we've got a great candidate and a lot of National voters here. The real challenge is will those voters actually turn out and vote on Saturday. If they do, we can win the byelection, if they don't, we won't."

Asked how National could be in such danger in a supposedly safe seat, he said byelections were very different from general elections - turnout was usually much lower and the focus was on local rather than national issues.

"And you have got someone with amazing name recognition in Winston Peters up against a new candidate."

Mr Peters said he was "not overconfident" but believed he could pull it off because National voters were angry with the Government.

"Right now we're pulling more National voters than Labour voters. That's because the National Party voters up here are brassed off about the [Mike] Sabin issue, the way it was covered up and the way they were left out. And they're brassed off, the farmers and other people, with the way they've been treated."

Mr Key said there were reasons why he could not comment on the issues around former MP Mike Sabin and he would talk about it if those reasons changed. He did not believe it had damaged the credibility of the Government in Northland.

The One News Colmar Brunton poll of 501 eligible Northland voters was taken from March 22 to 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent.