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Home / New Zealand

Niwa analysis: Just how much colder has 2025 been where you live in NZ?

Jamie Morton
By Jamie Morton
Multimedia Journalist·NZ Herald·
7 Jan, 2025 02:08 AM4 mins to read

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      • A Niwa analysis shows multiple locations around New Zealand have seen maximum temperatures running as much as 6C below average since New Year
      • The colder pattern has been caused by southerly flows blowing up from deep below New Zealand - and it’s likely to linger for another week
      • But the picture’s been different on the South Island’s West Coast, where temperatures have averaged several degrees above normal

      As sun-starved Wellingtonians need little reminding, summer 2025 has been much more bummer than stunner.

      But just how much worse has the weather been?

      Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino has crunched the numbers to find multiple locations have been recording maximum temperatures several degrees below what they’d usually get at this time of year.

      And in some places – like Wairoa, Masterton and Banks Peninsula – the difference has been a noticeably chillier 6C below normal.

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      Brandolino said the cooler pattern, which set in around New Year, was being driven by southerly flows sweeping up from deep below New Zealand – and it was likely to linger about for another week to come.

      In Wellington, which was granted a slight reprieve with warmer weather today, the average mean-maximum registered at Niwa’s Kelburn station over the first five days of 2025 registered at just 17.2C - or 3.1C below normal.

      At Trentham, Upper Hutt, that change has been starker still: with daily highs averaging out at only 17.5C, or 4.7C below normal.

      Further north in Masterton, that mean-maximum over the period has averaged 17.8C - a 6.6C difference – with similar anomalies observed at Akaroa (16.8C, or 6.1C below normal), Hanmer Forest (18C, or 5.8C) and Wairoa (19.2C, or 5.9C).

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      Brandolino singled out some other centres: Dannevirke’s mean-maximum of 17.5C over the last couple of days was just under 5C below normal – with Christchurch Airport’s station registering the same numbers.

      After a profoundly warm Dec. with dozens of locations observing record/near record warmth, there'll be a decidedly cool lean for the first half of Jan.

      Guidance favours more unusually cool days 🔵 than warm ones 🔴 to about mid-month.

      Early signs point to a warm-up thereafter. pic.twitter.com/xxAG0BDRxF

      — NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) January 2, 2025

      Niwa’s stations at Stratford and Whanganui observed cooler anomalies of 3.1C and 3.6C respectively.

      “If we turn to Auckland, the average maximum for the first five days of the year, as recorded at the airport, has been 22.6C - that’s a departure of –1.3C, but is still quite significant,” he said.

      “And if we head down the country, Hamilton, at Ruakura, has had a mean-maximum of 22.6C over the last six days, which is an even 2C below the long-term average.”

      New Plymouth’s average maximum over the year’s first five days was 20.5C - 1.3C below normal – which compared with the slight 1.4C anomaly recorded at Appleby, near Nelson, where daily highs have averaged 21.4C.

      Tauranga’s mean-maximum of 23.4C over the same period was 0.9C below the long-term average.

      For holidaymakers trying to enjoy the last of their summer break, Brandolino acknowledged the cool shift was “very bad timing”.

      “If you account for the period just before New Year – and consider that we’re in for another five days to a week of this pattern - then we’re talking three weeks of lacklustre temperatures at the very core of the holiday season.”

      He said the switch to glum weather would have been made more noticeable to beachgoers by the fact last month happened to be New Zealand’s fourth-warmest December.

      But he added that not everywhere in the country had experienced the cool-down.

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      On the South Island’s West Coast, Hokitika and Greymouth had enjoyed a run of days with maximum temperatures averaging 3.3 and 2C above average, respectively.

      Plenty of sunshine is visible over Aotearoa New Zealand this afternoon.

      It's a clearing trend for that cloud through the afternoon over Wairapara and Hawkes Bay, then Tairāwhiti Gisborne this evening.

      However, a frontal rainband is invading the South Island.

      All your… pic.twitter.com/s0XiZxKnQ7

      — MetService (@MetService) January 7, 2025

      MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said another cold front was due to sweep up the country on Wednesday.

      After that, clearer conditions were expected for many areas in the latter half of the week – but eastern regions were likely to remain mostly cloudy and cool, with occasional showers lingering.

      In the lower North Island and eastern parts of both islands, daytime highs would struggle to climb past the mid to late teens.

      The picture might have been markedly different had a warm-and-wet La Nina climate pattern formed – as had long been anticipated – but Brandolino said this now looked increasingly unlikely.

      Discover more

      • Summer disrupted: Why forecasters are picking a ‘cool ...
      • Weather: Parts of Northland approach drought as Wellington ...
      • Wet start to 2025 for holiday hotspots and main centres ...
      • Niwa says summer could be hotter, dryer than average; ...

      Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.

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