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Home / New Zealand

Ninth wave of Covid-19 suggests wane in immunity, expert says everyone must ‘act to reduce impact’

RNZ
8 Mar, 2026 06:55 PM3 mins to read

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Booster shots are available every six months for people over 30. Photo / Supplied

Booster shots are available every six months for people over 30. Photo / Supplied

By RNZ

A public health expert says New Zealand is in its ninth wave of Covid-19.

The latest Health New Zealand figures show 50 hospitalisations with the virus in the past week.

With booster uptake falling and little tracking of long Covid, experts are warning the real impact of the virus may still be underestimated.

University of Otago professor of public health Michael Baker told Morning Report that waves of Covid-19 had been a pattern seen since the Omicron variant started spreading widely in 2022.

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In the past four years, there had been roughly two waves per year.

Baker said the waves were equally distributed between winter and summer.

Michael Baker says people are not getting booster shots. Photo / Supplied
Michael Baker says people are not getting booster shots. Photo / Supplied

But this wave wasn’t following the pattern of a new subvariant emerging, which suggested a wane in immunity.

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Baker said people were not getting booster shots and for many, it had been quite some time since they were last infected and antibodies were dropping.

It was enough to give the virus “the edge”.

Baker said the virus was still New Zealand’s most impactful infectious disease - equating to about 1000 deaths a year - compared to influenza, which accounted for about 500.

Covid-19 was also filling up hospitals - and everyone needed to “act to reduce impact”, he said.

Baker said there was no data to show if people were still testing but many had become more complacent.

Tests were no longer paid for by the Government, making them unaffordable for some people.

“I think that’s a problem,” Baker said.

Apart from getting boosters - which were available every six months for people over 30 - Baker said self-isolation was the next best way to stop the spread.

He said if people had respiratory symptoms, they should stay home and get a test if they can afford it.

Covid-19 was being tracked through wastewater and hospitalisations - which were currently showing a “big wave”.

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As well as topping up antibodies, Baker said regular boosters reduced the risk of long Covid.

The “disabling illness” was not being monitored at all in New Zealand which Baker said was a “gap” in tracking the virus.

He suggested periodic surveys would be enough to track how many people are living with it.

*This story has been updated to remove the reference to 19 deaths.

The Covid-19 dashboard found here reports the number of deaths reported in the last 7 and 30 days. These are not deaths which occurred during these time periods; they are deaths which occurred prior to 18 July 2025 and have been coded as Covid-19 attributed in the underlying dataset within the 7 or 30-day reporting period.

The Covid-19 dashboard does not include any deaths which occurred on or after 18 July 2025.

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Prior to 18 July 2025, coding of Covid-19 attributed deaths was prioritised to allow for rapid reporting of these deaths. After this date, Covid-19 attributed deaths are being reported consistently with all other death reporting in New Zealand. Mortality Collection process is more robust, albeit subject to significant lag - presently, preliminary data for 2022, provisional data for 2021, and complete data for the years prior has been published. The number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 on the dashboard will change over time, as while they occurred at any time prior to 18 July 2025, they were coded as being attributed to Covid-19 subsequently.

- RNZ

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