By GREG ANSLEY
CANBERRA - The Australian economy has shown further signs of weakening despite growth topping 4 per cent a year, surging mineral exports and rising consumer confidence.
The otherwise glowing national accounts released yesterday also revealed slides in the key housing, manufacturing and construction sectors, adding to earlier data showing
declining growth in jobs and rising unemployment.
Treasurer Peter Costello remains confident of continued strong growth next year, despite an expected moderation in domestic demand.
He said increased exports would make up for some of the domestic slowdown, and the latest figures showed the inflation kick from the introduction of the GST would be much smaller than expected.
Although showing annual growth of 4.2 per cent, the accounts reveal growth was only 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, below the 1 per cent forecast as the period had been expected to reflect an Olympic-fuelled boom.
The shortfall is blamed on falling business confidence and a perception of poor business conditions.
Last month's Dunn and Bradstreet survey on retail, wholesale and manufacturing conditions, which pointed to the largest slide in business activity since the 1991 recession, was backed up by yesterday's National Australia Bank business poll.
It said that while mining and tourism had been boosted by the weaker dollar, business confidence fell further in November.
Chief economist Alan Oster said the survey indicated that economic growth would slow to about 3 per cent, increasing the chance of a cut in interest rates early next year.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment, also released yesterday, showed a 3.5 per cent increase in consumer confidence, pushed by interest rate hopes and a stabilising dollar.
Westpac general manager economics, Bill Evans, said consumers had been cheered by predicted falls in interest rates of about 1 per cent over the next 15 months.
The national accounts showed growth was largely stoked by exports, increased business investment, higher household spending and a build-up in stocks.
Export growth was confirmed by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, which said export earnings by the minerals and energy sector rose 3 per cent in September to a level almost 40 per cent above the figure for 1999.
It said this reflected increased world prices and volumes for commodities, especially petroleum, coal, alumina and aluminium, and the impact of a lower dollar.
Against this, the national accounts showed falls in housing, Government spending, construction and manufacturing.
