Still a bit over a week to go, but I think we can indulge in some predictions.
The first is what we have today we won't have come next Saturday night. This race has continued to change and unfold and that will continue up until the last moment.
Butthe push by Labour, indeed the party's leaders voting at the first opportunity she could, is a clue as to how they are viewing this race... nervously.
The gap between the left and the right that we have seen closing, is of course a combination of two things. One, it happens anyway as people go from hypothesising to pollsters to actually taking it seriously, and two, Labour have been caught short in terms of policy and the need to at least pretend they're not just waltzing across the winner's line.
Surely the Resource Management Act announcement last Friday was all the evidence you needed that they had nothing in the policy bank, so they rolled out reform that until Covid they had shown no interest in addressing.
As each day goes by the reality of the economic damage becomes more clear, more real.
The GDP figure which was the statistical evidence that Australia has outperformed us by an embarrassing margin was due to come out two days before the first election date. Now we have had more than a month to digest it and to see and experience Auckland in level 3 and 2. The economic impact that has had damages support.
The dream of running the country by themselves I think is gone. New Zealand First are almost certainly gone, I am happy to give them the general consensus that they do perform on the day better than the polls tell us, but the polls have been consistent and ugly, and at this stage I would be more than happy to wager money, it's over for them.
The Greens, I still don't know, 5 per cent? ? I would not be surprised either way, but their result is the real story of the election, because if they don't make it, one, it pretty much destroys MMP, and two, Labour's chances of government go with them.
Can National and Act match Labour by next Saturday? Yes.
Can they match Labour and the Greens? Highly unlikely.
Labour wants voters casting their ballots early because it worries support might slip, argues Mike Hosking. Photo/ File
If the Greens don't make 5 per cent, by the time you put their vote along with all the other minor players votes in the bin, you're potentially splitting abut 90 per cent of the vote. So 45 or so per cent wins, and either side is more than capable of drumming up those numbers.
As for the referendums, euthanasia will be comfortably confirmed. It it hasn't been a headline grabber this campaign largely because it's an old debate and most of us made up our minds years back.
The vote is just a rubber stamp that confirms the public were always ahead of the politicians. It is rich reward for David Seymour who came of age with this law, and is watching his party's support rise because of it.
As for cannabis, "No" will win, despite what has been a profoundly dishonest pitch by too many who wanted a different result.
The media to my eye has given a vastly disproportionate amount of coverage to the "yes" camp.
The Drug Foundation should be ashamed of itself but the simple reality is as the vote has drawn closer and middle New Zealand has thought about it, the idea of adding yet more social ills to our already growing pile simply never made sense.
If you look for averages, and broad trends in polling, euthanasia has been a consistent one-sided story, while cannabis has shown a steady growth for 'no' and a steady decline for 'yes'.
So, 10 days to go.
New Zealand First, gone.
Cannabis, no.
Euthanasia, yes.
The next government? If you're calling it this morning, it's not because you know, it's because you want the result you are calling.
This will be closer than many think or want to believe. There is still everything to play for.
