Labour and the Greens would be able to form a Government with 62 seats between them if the latest Newshub Reid Research poll were translated to votes - but it would be a close-run thing.
National and Act would miss out with 58 seats.
New Zealand First would be out of Parliament altogether – unless it won an electorate seat.
National is on 43.3 per cent (down 0.6) – 56 seats.
Labour is on 42.5 per cent (up 0.9) – 55 seats
Greens 5.6 per cent ((down 0.7) – 7 seats
Act 1.8 per cent (up 0.4 ) – 2 seats assuming it keeps Epsom
NZ First 3.6 per cent (down 0.4) – 0 seats.
The Maori Party polled 0.9 (up by 0.2); the Opportunities Party 0.6 per cent (down 0.5) and the Conservatives 0.7 per cent (down 0.2).
While the Green Party's support translates to 7 seats, its polling shows it running very close to the 5 per cent threshold, which parties have to reach if they don't win an electorate seat.
The result reinforces the importance of New Zealand First winning an electorate seat, not only to survive but to give Labour options if the Greens don't survive. New Zealand First is expected to target Northland where Cabinet Minister Shane Jones will be standing.
The poll is the first major public poll of the year and was taken between January 23 and February 1.
That was immediately after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern outlined plans for the $12 billion infrastructure spend and before National leader Simon Bridges ruled out working with New Zealand First in any post-election deal.
The poll also asked voters if they thought National should work with New Zealand First and when broken down to party votes, a slight majority of National voters, 42.7 per cent, said yes; 40.9 per cent said no and 16.4 per cent did not know.
Among the very small sample of New Zealand First voters, 54.4 per cent said yes, 35.6 per cent said no and 10 per cent did not know.
• The poll of 1000 eligible voters was taken between January 23 and February 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.