Mt Taranaki's next blow may be a moderate-sized event like recent bangs - or something else entirely if its "unusually long" slumber gives way to a new eruptive era.

It might be surprising that it's Taranaki - not Ruapehu, Tongariro or rowdy White Island - that is the most likely volcano to cause national-scale impacts in our lifetime.

Scientists currently put the chance of an eruption from the 2500m stratovolcano at about 25 per cent within the next 30 years, and 50 per cent within the next century.

In a new study, University of Auckland scientists took a deep look

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