Warmer than normal start to winter predicted

A fisherman enjoyed the big swells and clear skies on Marine Parade Napier today. Photo / Warren Buckland

The start of winter could be unseasonably warm, forecasters say.

Between May and July, Niwa predicted temperatures were likely to be above average across the country although cold snaps and frosts were likely to occur, particularly in colder locations, as the season progressed.

Forecasters said the marine heatwave conditions which continued in the Tasman Sea last month meant warmer than normal seas which could lead to shorter and less severe cold spells during the start of winter, according to Niwa's Seasonal Climate Outlook.

Sea surface temperatures around the country ranged from 0.8C to 2.1C warmer than normal.

And the warm seas were likely to continue through the coming quarter, Niwa predicted.

But that did not mean the next three months would be dry.

Rainfall could be above normal in the west of the South Island while the north of the South Island would get the usual amount.

For the North Island and the rest of the South, rainfall could be below average, Niwa said. But forecasters warned there was an equal chance it would be just as wet as normal.

Models predicted the El Nino weather pattern the country had experienced over recent months would certainly continue through to July and would likely last through to next summer.

As for this weekend, parts of the country were expected to see the mercury soar well above average.

A ridge of high pressure sitting over much of the country would bring above average temperatures nationwide - with some parts of the South Island soaring to 6C above average.

Temperatures in Auckland would stay at around 19C-20C - roughly 3C above normal.