The post-election issue that is most likely to dominate political analysis over the next few months is the state of the Labour Party, its leadership, and how the party might rebuild. The biggest immediate problem seems to be a dearth of credible leadership options. As Vernon Small says, there has been 'no clear contender emerging over the last term because of doubts over all the likely options'. He also puts forward the pros and cons of leading contenders: see: Parker heads queue for Labour leadership. Claire Trevett sets out similar points in: 'Charismatic' Cunliffe people's choice for Labour. Trevett's report also quotes me as saying all three Davids - Cunliffe, Parker, and Shearer - are 'sort of Phil Goff clones', and the party would be better to think outside the box. Patrick Gower also blogs today to say that 'Labour's problem: Its caucus cannot think outside the square' - see: Lack of Camp Shearer shows Labour's problems. According to Gower, 'The caucus are too focussed on the egos and the power brokers and the factions and the personal history to see through the mist'.
Today's Dominion Post editorial, Policies with vision needed by Labour perceptively points out that Labour needs someone who is 'more than the master of the sound bite and more than the best schemer in the Labour caucus'. Unfortunately for Labour, the Dom Post says 'Neither of the leading contenders to replace Mr Goff - David Parker and David Cunliffe - has demonstrated that capability to the public. Nor have the others whose names have been mentioned in connection with the position - David Shearer, Andrew Little and Grant Robertson'.
The three Daves all have a sense of being versions of 'Key-lite' at best, and at worst, alternative versions of Phil Goff. And why would voters want to re-embrace a party lead by a poor carbon copy what they have just rejected? Gordon Campbell has written a very thoughtful blog post on the leadership problem, suggesting that Cunliffe and Parker, in particularly, are actually very similar to each other: 'It is not as if they are polar opposites, ideologically speaking. Both tend to be regarded as being at the rightward end of the centre left political spectrum, on the economy at least' - see: On the challenges facing Labour's new leader.
There's talk of 'wild card' options - usually people like Grant Robertson - but the problem is that such candidates are far from being 'wild' at all. They're entirely predictable. There is no doubt that Robertson will eventually be at least deputy leader. But although he's probably got more going for him than the David's he's not entirely in a different league. Campbell is fairly dismissive of the apparently leadership ticket of Parker and Robertson: 'David Parker and Grant Robertson - looks more substantial as a management team, but less capable of winning votes for Labour among the wider public. Unfortunately for Labour, it isn't bidding to run a small government agency - a task for which Parker/Robertson would be a crackerjack duo - but the entire country.' Also, as the Dim-Post blog points out, despite having a strong reputation, Robertson 'Has not met expectations as an opposition MP in terms of holding Ryall to account in the health portfolio' see: Process of elimination.
Labour's problems run deeper than a lack of leadership options. Numerous party insiders and commentators have emphasised today the extent of Labour's problems. Shane Jones has been one of the most outspoken on the need for Labour to face up to its disastrous loss: 'Really we've got to delve deeply into why three out of every four New Zealanders who cast a vote said we were unsound and unfit to govern. I don't think that will change until we deeply address those challenges. Until we really understand why so many people moved away from us, then we are going to be where we are for a long time to come' (Shane Jones: Labour must reconnect with Maori).