New Zealand faces up to a diverse future

New Zealanders must accept that not only will it be harder to lure white migrants, we will increasingly be competing for Asian immigrants. Picture / NZ Herald

When Irish businessman Richie O'Neill was weighing up whether to move to New Zealand, he was aware he had other options.

Knowing he could earn twice as much in Europe, he chose New Zealand for its space and lifestyle.

Some would have made a different decision. As the international shortage of skilled workers drives up wages, others in O'Neill's position would opt for US greenbacks over our green pastures.

Throw in an ageing population and decreasing birthrate, and even Prime Minister Helen Clark is worried. She has asked the Department of Labour what it proposes to do to ensure New Zealand's economic growth is not constrained.

In the current financial year, the Government aimed to bring in 20,000 applicants (including their families) under the skilled migrant category. Four months into the year, 3055 people had been accepted, and the Immigration Service would not supply an update, saying simply they were "pulling out all the stops" to improve the situation.

It is clear New Zealand is seeing a "whitening" trend in migration. Last year, Britain was the greatest source of immigrants, making up a fifth of all approvals for permanent residency. Just over one-tenth came from China - a 4 per cent fall from earlier years.

The swing is largely due to the toughening up of the English language test requirements in 2002.

While Immigration Minister Paul Swain denies the result was intentional, other politicians and academics are not so sure.

While a certain command of English is necessary, says Auckland University geographer Ward Friesen, he wonders whether the changes might be a throwback to the 1970s when European countries were the preferred sources of migrants.

Perhaps coincidentally, every change making it harder for non-English speakers to be granted entry has come in an election year. Regardless, the whitening will not last, says Waikato University population expert Richard Bedford. 

More than a third of the world's population - 2.3 billion potential immigrants - live in China and India.

The pool of white labour is far more shallow. Between them,Europe, the United States, Canada and South Africa have a potential workforce of less than 1 billion.

Statistics NZ's latest forecasts support this. Europeans are predicted to fall to just over two-thirds of our population by 2021, while Asians are predicted to double to 15 per cent. The Pacific and Maori populations will also grow. 

But Waikato University population expert Arunachalam Dharmalingam thinks the predictions are optimistic. He thinks it is unlikely there will be such a big influx of Asians, partly because many will lured by Europe and North America.

The Department of Labour is working on the issue together with the Immigration Service, and in recent months the number of Pacific Island migrants has increased.

With the lowest unemployment rate in decades, training New Zealanders is not the answer. Dharmalingam says the focus should be on bringing ex-pat New Zealanders home by improving the student loan system and boosting salaries.

Friesen is not so sure. Not everyone leaves the country to pay off student loans, he says. Many want to see the world or further careers - a wanderlust that shouldn't be curbed.

Bedford says we have to face facts. We're a relatively low wage economy. We must promote our positives - a cheap education system, recreational opportunities, "and perhaps most importantly, our tolerance of people who are different".

Nevertheless, Bedford says he's despondent at our negative stereotyping. In 1996, when Asian immigration was relatively new, he could understand some antipathy towards immigrants. "But hell's bells, we're nearly 10 years out from that and we've had a lot of migration anda lot of discussion about the roleit plays."

Yet each election year, Bedford hears the same racist debate. "People have got to get their heads around the fact that the world is a lot more diverse and complex than that."

- HERALD ON SUNDAY