A satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Tam on its way towards New Zealand in April 2025.
A satellite image showing Tropical Cyclone Tam on its way towards New Zealand in April 2025.
Northern New Zealand is at a normal and higher-than-normal risk of cyclones for the 2025-26 season, forecasters estimate.
In the newly released Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) is predicting five to nine cyclones could hit the Southwest Pacific region during the season, with nine traditionally being thelong-term average.
Significant differences are expected between the western and eastern halves of the basin from November to April.
A graphic showing the Earth Sciences New Zealand/Metservice assessment of the risk that cyclones would hit the Southwest Pacific basin for November 2025 to April 2026. Photo / Earth Sciences New Zealand, MetService
“Normal to reduced risk is anticipated for the central part of the basin, and reduced risk is expected for the eastern part of the basin,” ESNZ said.
New Caledonia, Vanuatu and northern New Zealand are at a normal to elevated risk of tropical cyclones.
Fiji is forecast to see normal activity, while the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Tuvalu, Tokelau, and Wallis and Futuna are expected to see normal or reduced activity.
A graphic showing the Earth Sciences New Zealand/Metservice assessment of the number of cyclones expected to hit the Southwest Pacific basin for November 2025 to April 2026. Photo / Earth Sciences New Zealand, MetService
Northern New Zealand, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna and the Solomon Islands are likely to see one to two cyclones during the season.
Fiji is at risk of seeing two to three, while New Caledonia and Vanuatu are at risk of seeing three to four.
The rest of the South Pacific is at risk of encountering only one cyclone.
“Between two and four severe tropical cyclones reaching category 3 or higher may occur anywhere across the region, so all communities should remain prepared,” ESNZ said.
ESNZ, MetService, the University of Newcastle and meteorological services across the Pacific Islands created the report, with ESNZ thanking the other organisations for their contributions.
ESNZ was formally known as Niwa - the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research - until July this year when it was merged with GNS Science to create the new organisation.
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