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Home / New Zealand

New poll: National rebounds as Jacinda effect slows

NZ Herald
12 Sep, 2017 06:00 AM4 mins to read

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Steven Joyce and Grant Robertson debate industrial relations at The Mood of the Boardroom.

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern appears to have hit a speed bump in the latest Newshub Reid Research poll as National's Bill English claws back ground to get up to 47 per cent.

The poll had National up four points from a week ago to 47.3 per cent while Labour was down slightly on 37.8 per cent.

It is a stark contrast from the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll last Thursday night which had Labour steady on 43 per cent from the week before, while National had slipped to four points behind on 39.

The poll was bad news for the Green Party which was down below the vital five per cent threshold on 4.9 per cent - just too low to return to Parliament if the election night results is the same.

NZ First had also slipped a bit to 6 per cent.

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The contrast with the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll show just how volatile the polling is - both leaders are expecting a tight race.

On the Newshub results, National would be able to govern alone - the Green Party's vote would not be counted.

Last week English predicted the "stardust" around Ardern would soon abate as voters began to look at policies.

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English had also climbed further as preferred Prime Minister - up to 33 per cent from 30 per cent. Ardern had inched up only slightly - from 29.9 to 31.7 per cent.

Ardern has spent much of the last week trying to bat off English's attacks on "back pocket issues" and Labour's "vague" policies on tax.

Ardern said it was clear that it was going to be a close race.

"It's really going to come down to Election Day. We're going to keep running a positive campaign and it will be right down to the wire."

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English told Newshub the poll results had National a bit higher than its own polling.

"What we see is a drag race between the two big parties. They are going to be choosing National because we can build on the strength that we have, not slow it all down."

The last Newshub poll in early September had National still ahead but starting to slip on 43.3 per cent while Labour was up to 39.4 per cent. English's personal support was also rising at that point - he had moved up to 30.1 per cent as preferred PM but Ardern was almost even on 29.9 per cent.

Both NZ First and the Green Party had both dropped further to 6.6 per cent and 6.1 per cent as the squeeze from the contest between the two big parties took effect.

Early voting began on Monday, adding extra urgency to the campaigns of both National and Labour. Ardern was quick to get at least one vote in the bag - casting her own vote in Mt Albert today and encouraging others to do the same.

Both leaders have been saying they believe the election will be a close-run thing as the poll gap closed.

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Tonight's poll follows a concerted attack by National over the lack of clarity in Labour's tax policy. That had led to Ardern ruling out any changes in income taxes and on Monday ruling out any inheritance tax - but she is otherwise sticking to her position not to decide on tax changes until after a Tax Working Group if in government.

There was also controversy over National Finance spokesman Steven Joyce's attempt to discredit Labour's fiscal plan by claiming an $11.7 billion hole in it.

That was dismissed by several economics commentators, but English has continued to back Joyce and pointed out that once extra money is put into health and education there is very little left for other areas of Government spending.

The Newshub Reid Research poll surveyed 1000 voters, 750 by telephone and 250 by internet panel. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.

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