National's poll surge leaves Labour smarting

Labour has been stung by a poll putting National eight points ahead of it less than two weeks from the election.

Senior Cabinet minister Pete Hodgson took the highly unusual step last night of saying the poll was "almost certainly a mistake rather than a trend".

National was up six points to 46 per cent and Labour down five points to 38 per cent in the One News-Colmar Brunton poll taken from Monday to Thursday last week.

Dr Brash was up four points to 31 per cent and Prime Minister Helen Clark was down five to 40 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes.

It follows another weekend poll, for Fairfax, suggesting that National was leading Labour, but by three points.

In the Herald-DigiPoll survey published last Friday, Labour (on 43.4 per cent) had a lead of 4.3 per cent over National but the gap was down from 9.3 per cent the week before.

Dr Brash dominated the political agenda last week, first because of leaked emails to him from Act and Business Roundtable officials, then through a widely covered speech on race issues, being ruled out as a coalition partner by the Maori Party, and being the subject of a strong attack by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

Last night's poll shows that very small movements in support for various parties could have a dramatic change on post-election scenarios.

The Greens were on six (down one), New Zealand First was on five points (it actually polled 4.6 but Colmar Brunton rounds its figures), the Maori Party was on 2 (up 1), Act 1 (down 1) and United Future and Destiny both steady on 1 point each.

Translated to seats, the poll would allow National to govern with the support of just one other party, New Zealand First - assuming the leaders of New Zealand First, United Future, Progressives and Maori Party kept their seats.

It would also be possible for Labour and the Progressives to govern but it would require the support of three other parties including NZ First.

A scenario in which NZ First disappears from the next Parliament then makes United Future the kingmaker.

National is planning a joint outing for Dr Brash and United Future leader Peter Dunne this week.

Mr Hodgson said that polls were reported with a margin of error based on a 95 per cent confidence level. That meant 19 out of every 20 polls were accurate within the margin of error.

It also meant that one poll in 20 recorded findings outside the margin of error.

"This poll sits well outside the findings of many polls over the past few days or weeks and is therefore almost certainly a mistake rather than a trend."

Dr Brash said through a spokesman that he expected the polls to remain volatile and he would not be taking anything for granted.