National will need Act at election, website predicts

Rodney Hide and John Key. File photo / Mark Mitchell

A website is predicting that National will likely need the embattled Act party to govern after next year's election.

Figures released by iPredict have National winning 58 seats - three short of the 61 needed for an outright majority in the 121 seat parliament.

United Future is only predicted to win one seat, with leader Peter Dunne expected to win a tight battle to retain his seat in Ohariu.

That could leave National needing the support of Rodney Hide and another of his Act MPs to retain power.

The right wing party is tipped to win two seats in the next election, despite being embroiled in a series of scandals in the last months.

iPredict CEO Matt Burgess said the 2011 election was looking a lot closer than many anticipated.

"If you take Act out of the picture, which is certainly a possibility, then National is looking vulnerable.

"John Key is really light on the right side of the political spectrum. If Act disappears, he is looking a bit bereft and possibly will be struggling to form a Government."

Act Deputy Leader Heather Roy was ousted in favour of John Boscawen in August.

A leaked statement showed disputes between her and Mr Hide, who she accused of bullying her staff.

In September, the party's former Law and Order spokesman David Garrett was revealed to have a conviction for stealing the identity of a dead baby.

Court documents recently released to the Herald show he lied to the judge in that case about a previous conviction for assaulting a man in Tonga.

If those scandals cost ACT its place in Parliament, the Maori Party could emerge as kingmaker, says Mr Burgess.

It is predicted to win five electorate seats and 3.5 per cent of the vote, meaning a support deal would net National a governing majority of 64 seats.

But fractures have recently emerged in the support agreement between the two parties, with Maori Party MP Hone Harawira leading a campaign against new foreshore and seabed legislation.

"It's shaping up as a more interesting election than anyone anticipated," says Mr Burgess.

New Zealand First is not predicted to make the five per cent threshold needed for a return to Parliament.

Labour is polling at 34 per cent, or 43 seats, and Greens are predicted to win 11 seats.