A new poll out today could spell a storm brewing for the National Party.
The Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll has shown National dropping nearly three points to 28.4% – the lowest poll for the party since it formed a Government in 2023.
It’s while Labour is up 0.3 points to 34.4%. The Greens are up to 10.5%, NZ First is down to 9.7%, Act is up to 7.5%, and Te Pāti Māori is up to 3.2%.
This all means that if an election were held today, the centre-left bloc could form the next Government, although by a pretty small margin.
The situation is being compared to the National Party’s performance in the 2020 election, where the party suffered one of the worst election losses in its history.
NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan told The Front Page that the number is incredibly low for the party.
“My understanding is that it is the lowest a National Party has ever polled whilst in Government since the late 1990s, when Jenny Shipley got a similar number.
“The political environment has changed a little bit. The National Party is in a coalition with New Zealand First and Act, which means that just structurally, National is probably going to be polling at a lower number than when the party was under John Key as Prime Minister.
“With that being said, 28.4% is an incredibly low number, and it does come off the back of a terrible week for the Prime Minister. That’s basically the opinion of everyone.
“Nicola Willis even said on ZB ... and specified it hadn’t been a good week for the Prime Minister. She could have said it hadn’t been a great week for the National Party, but she chose to say Prime Minister,” Coughlan said.
The Labour Party was polling around 23-24% when Andrew Little resigned as leader before the 2017 election, handing over to Jacinda Ardern. This move boosted Labour to the 40s by the end of the month.
“There isn’t an obvious Jacinda in the wings. I think Jacinda Ardern cast a bit of a shadow over New Zealand politics, because for many years and now into the future, whenever a party’s performing poorly, they’ll always be ‘looking for their Jacinda’.
“Even John Key, who was the only politician in recent times who was of similar popularity, was quite different. His path to leadership was a bit more obvious. He achieved the leadership sooner, but it was a clearer path. Rather than Jacinda, which was almost like flicking on the light switch, and all of a sudden, she was there, and polling was good.
“There is no ‘Jacinda’ in the National Party at the moment. But that doesn’t mean that there won’t be a change. But there’s no obvious candidate, and that probably does help Christopher Luxon stay in his position,” Coughlan said.
Based on these numbers, some top National brass would be out of a job after this year’s election.
“They would also struggle for list placings. Paul Goldsmith is on the list; he’s a senior MP. Nicola Willis is on the list; she’s the National Party deputy leader. Chris Bishop is in a marginal seat, so if National were on 28%, he’d probably lose that seat,” Coughlan said.
Listen to the full episode to hear more about:
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting, who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.