National breathing down Labour's neck

A snap poll shows National lunging to within striking distance of Labour after a week of Government flailing.

Already forced on to the back foot by questions over the Prime Minister's role in forcing former Police Commissioner Peter Doone's resignation, the Government was unbalanced entirely by the Iraqi immigration bungle.

While Helen Clark admits the Government has been "dealing with difficult issues lately", NZ First leader Winston Peters is grinning all the way to the polling booth with 17.7 per cent of respondents rating him their preferred Prime Minister.

The Herald on Sunday-Digipoll of 500 people has Labour dropping four points in a week to 41.6 per cent, coming after a three-point drop last month.

Meanwhile, National has increased four points to 37 per cent, the Greens have climbed two points to 7.7 per cent, and NZ First has held firm at 6.8 per cent.

Victoria University political scientist Dr Jon Johansson said the poll was a great result for National, despite poor results for leader Don Brash in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

"It confirms, on the back of the National Business Review poll on Friday, that Labour has dropped down to the 40 mark. That will have alarm bells ringing in Labour," he said.

High personal ratings for Winston Peters meant the poll was also good news for NZ First: "Winston has had a terrific week, completely dominating the agenda. And if Winston rises, so does the party."

But it was too early to say "game on" for the election, with questions about how solid National's support base was. Dr Johansson believes Labour's poll slump will have the perverse effect of persuading Helen Clark to wait until September for the election, rather than going to the polls in the middle of a popularity slump.

Ms Clark said through a spokesman that one could not compare a snap poll with the bigger regular polls: "The Government has been dealing with difficult issues lately. Some Opposition parties have been asleep for three years and have just woken up, and now everybody is on the campaign trail."

National leader Don Brash said the poll result had little to do with the Doone and immigration problems, instead it vividly demonstrated that the election was turning into a two-horse race between National and Labour.

Brash had spent the past few days in Southland, and before that had visited Timaru, Oamaru and Dunedin. "Where I travel, I find increasing frustration, almost anger, with the Government. Sometimes it's not quite clear why that is, but it's a lot more widespread than it was six months ago."

But asked about the near-invisibility of National's potential coalition partner, Act, Brash played down the poll's significance - and so, too, did Act leader Rodney Hide.

"That's definitely a rogue result - we know we are polling at 3 to 4 per cent," Mr Hide said.

Green co-leader Rod Donald credited his party's increased share to a mail drop of 400,000 brochures and the party's MPs campaigning around the country over the two-week recess last month.

"The groundwork we've put in over the past few weeks is starting to pay off," he said.

* Polls conducted May 4-7 with 500 interviews completed. Percentages are of decided voters only. Margin of error: 4.4%

- HERALD ON SUNDAY