Intermittent power outages remain in Piha, on Auckland’s west coast, with “partial” restorations about the settlement.
In Karekare, power has also been “partially restored” while “most” of Muriwai has been reconnected, Auckland Emergency Management (AEM) said.
Of the more almost 7000 buildings assessed around the region, AEM reported 579 houses as red-stickered following both the Auckland Anniversary Weekend storm and Cyclone Gabrielle. 2245 homes have been yellow-stickered, most being from the flooding on January 27.
Sixteen people stayed at Civil Defence centres last night, as the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment worked towards putting displaced residents up in long-term accommodation by the end of today.
A welfare mission to Karekare was planned for today, with trauma counselling teams from Te Whatu Ora and the Salvation Army heading to the isolated settlement.
On top of this, MetService and Niwa are monitoring a new tropical cyclone forming in the Pacific, which could track towards Aotearoa later in the week.
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupō, Hawke’s Bay, Taihape, Wanganui and Manawatū are all under a severe thunderstorm watch from 1.30pm to 9pm, which could bring torrential rain, hail and flash floods.
Driving conditions could become hazardous and people are urged to keep up to date with weather information.
Auckland Emergency Management is reminding people to ensure their gutters and drains are clear of debris to lower the risk of flooding.
Gisborne is under a heavy rain warning which could cause rivers to flood rapidly. The warning will be in place from 9am Monday to 6am Tuesday, and the region can expect 60 to 100 mm of rain on top of what has already fallen, the heaviest of which will fall north of the city.
Localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/h are possible, mainly this morning and early afternoon.
The Coromandel is also under a rain warning, from 9am to 4pm and the Bay of Plenty is under the same between 9am and midnight.
This will bring periods of heavy rain with possible thunderstorms and localised downpours. Rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria.
The thunderstorms will add another layer on top of the forecasted rain says Weather Watch.
Meanwhile, MetService meteorologists are closely monitoring a weather system near Fiji, which has the potential to turn into another tropical cyclone.
Niwa said this morning the latest modelling shows the storm missing New Zealand.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll told the Herald that ensemble forecasting involves running multiple instances of a forecast model, or “members” repeatedly to see if a pattern emerges.
By assessing the different scenarios, meteorologists can understand whether the different members agree or disagree with one another - and as weather systems draw closer, a consensus will too.
“There are inherent uncertainties in forecasting and over time those can compound. Niwa runs an ensemble system with 18 different members, you can understand if they’re vastly different or similar - for example, if we have 18 members in agreement, then the forecaster confidence is high but if they disagree we can understand how they diverge and communicate those different possible forecast scenarios.”
Noll said at the moment, Niwa expects a tropical cyclone - the fourth of the season - to form over Vanuatu.
“As we go towards the late stages of the week that cyclone will travel south of Vanuatu - what forecasts tell us is while it’s travelling south there’s an atmosphere of high pressure - an atmospheric stop sign – sliding in over the South Island and that may help keep it away.”
He said given the storm is still almost a week out, it will be monitored closely and while most members point to it missing New Zealand, there is a chance that could change.
“There may still be an ensemble monitor or two that tracks it a little closer.”
