Monarchy or republic? Sir John Key's case for sticking with King Charles III

Sir John Key says he does not see a case to cut New Zealand's tie to the monarchy after the Queen's death: a time some of the 14 countries who have the British monarch as a head of state have long considered would be a stocktake moment.

Key said he did not believe New Zealand would, or should, become a republic any time soon.

And he said the Queen herself had taken steps to try to shore up the monarchy in places like New Zealand, although she had always been resigned to knowledge that some countries would become republics. "She held the view that was ultimately the decision for the people."

Sir John Key was among those who once thought New Zealand might look at it after the Queen died, especially if Australia moved.

He changed his view on that after his own encounters with the royal family – and a series of visits to New Zealand, especially by Prince William but also Prince Harry.

He said they were people younger New Zealanders identified with - modern, relaxed, and human – and Key now believes that younger generation may have saved the monarchy in New Zealand, regardless of people's views of King Charles.

"Of course, there will always be different points in time when the fondness or otherwise will move up and down to a degree, and that's human life.

"But there is no doubt, younger New Zealanders would be able to have an affinity with what were the young princes. Their story was one of tragedy with the death of their mother. They put a different face on the monarchy, it was one that was more relevant for New Zealanders."

"When we have a terrible disaster, like a Christchurch earthquake, or Pike River mine or the massacre in Christchurch, in many respects there is very little people can do. Realistically, what people most want then is just support, something to make them feel a new day will dawn, really. We underestimate how much people take comfort from those messages."

Prince William at Al-Noor Mosque after the Christchurch mosque attacks. Photo / Kensington Palace

"I think the role Prince William played coming back for the memorial services were all important actions and they did them because they genuinely wanted to."

New Zealand was Williams' first ever international trip – when he was just a baby. It was also the first place he acted in the place of the sovereign (laying a wreath during the Lions tour in 2005), and his first official trip representing the Queen – to open the Supreme Court in 2010.

It was also the first country William brought his own son, Prince George, to. He also came over for services after the Christchurch earthquakes, Pike River and the mosque attacks.

Key said the Queen had known for the institution of the monarchy to stay strong, a clear future had to be set.

"She wasn't afraid to address those issues and think about them. Many of the actions you've seen her take over the last decade have been very deliberate."

The example he gave was in her decision to send Prince William to represent her to open the Supreme Court in 2010 instead of coming herself. "She said 'I'm going to send Prince William because it will be the first time he's gone to New Zealand to represent me in the official capacity as Queen. It was all part of her long-term thought process and the methodical way she went about preparing for a passing of the baton."

Other actions included changing the laws for primogeniture to include daughters, and a rule change for the Commonwealth to ensure King Charles would automatically succeed her as its head.

"Obviously I'm a staunch monarchist, but I've always thought in this regard, for those who want New Zealand to be a republic, they might want to ask themselves what they would actually get for that."

He said selecting a head of state was potentially problematic, especially if it was decided that a President should be elected, rather than appointed.

"I think that would be a very poor way of appointing a head of state."

Sir John Key with Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip before the Rugby World Cup in 2011. Photo / NZPA

He said the Governors-General he had put up for appointment, Dame Patsy Reddy and Sir Jerry Mateparae, would have been unlikely to put their names forward for an election.

"Both proved in the role to be outstanding Governor-Generals, very fine New Zealanders. But would they have put themselves forward or been elected as President? I doubt it."

"Someone once said to me that the problem with a popularity contest is you end up with your most famous sports star as your president."

He jokingly added "now, if it was Richie McCaw it might be all right."

"But as a general rule, it's probably not the way you want to elect your head of state."

Many republicans have argued that an appointment with a support of a strong majority of Parliament is the better model.

He said he had always been a monarchist – and points to a business reason for that as well, saying visits by the royals are good for a country's international exposures.

His views on it were confirmed after his interactions with the royal family, including that weekend with his family at Balmoral in Scotland.

"Inevitably, anyone's language gets stronger if the interactions you have are so positive, and mine were. And they are not interactions the every day New Zealander can be part of. But they were genuine."

Other than the UK, there are 14 countries that have King Charles as the head of state: Australia, Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, Canada, Grenada, Jamaica, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Solomon Islands, The Bahamas and Tuvalu and the UK. Barbados moved to a republic last year.

Others have ministers or bodies set up to consider constitution reform. In Australia, new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has appointed MP Matt Thistlethwaite to the new role of Assistant Minister for the Republic. Thistlethwaite has proposed a discussion in the next three years, and if the public wish it, a move to an Australian head of state some time in the next two terms - after 2025.

Prince William and Prime Minister John Key at the Earthquake Memorial Service in 2011. Photo / Ross Setford

The words of Prime Ministers:

A string of Prime Ministers in countries such as New Zealand and Australia – even the republican ones – have long said a mood for change would be needed to shift to being a republic, and that would not be the case while the Queen was on the throne.

Of our last six Prime Ministers, three were monarchists (Dame Jenny Shipley, Key and Sir Bill English) and three republicans (Jim Bolger, Helen Clark, Jacinda Ardern).
New Zealand now has a republican Prime Minister and an (admittedly luke-warm) republican Opposition leader, Christopher Luxon. Yet neither have any appetite for holding that debate.

In 2017, when she was Opposition leader, Ardern said it was a debate that needed to be had and that it should have been the discussion rather than a referendum on changing the flag.

Within months she was in the Prime Minister's office on the Beehive's ninth floor and wanted nothing to do with it.

After she first met the Queen in early 2018, Ardern told the NZ Herald she would not make any move toward becoming a republic as Prime Minister. She has repeated that recently.

Luxon has also previously told the NZ Herald he was republican, but did not see it as a priority. The National Party's constitution also includes a provision of loyalty to the monarchy, although in 2001 it did consider a proposal for a referendum on becoming a republic after the Queen died.

Clark abolished knighthoods, and switched our highest appeal court from the Privy Council to the New Zealand Supreme Court but did not move on wider constitutional change.

Key brought back knighthoods, and they remain now.

Key is the proudest of the monarchist PMs. English was a less fervent monarchist who once remarked it would be difficult to out-enthuse Key on that front.

Queen Elizabeth II greets Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at a dinner during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. Photo / supplied

Prime Ministers on the monarchy

PM Jacinda Ardern: republican in the slow lane

August 2017: "I do think that we should start having the conversation. There are a lot of issues that need to be resolved on that path, and I would have liked the Government to have had that conversation when the flag debate came up.

"That was the time to say, 'actually, where are we heading? What's the Crown's ongoing relationship with Māori if we transition into a republic? Where will we be in 20 years' time in this regard.' That's the debate we should have had, rather than one just about the flag."

March 2018: - "When I have been asked for an opinion, I think within my lifetime I think it is a likelihood we will transition. It is not something this Government is prioritising at all though."

May 2021: "I've been very clear that despite being a republican, I'm not of the view that in the here-and-now in my term of office, that this is something New Zealanders feel particularly strongly about."

"I don't know that I've had one person actually raise with me generally day-to-day the issue of becoming a republic. This Government has prioritised those issues that we do see as a priority. But I do still think there will be a time and a place; I just don't see it as now."

John Key, 2016: "I don't think there's any chance New Zealand is going to become a republic any time soon. In fact, I would be amazed if New Zealand becomes a republic in my lifetime. And I'm hoping to live a long and happy life."

"The bond with the royal family has been growing stronger and closer in the last 10 to 20 years, particularly with the young royals. I just think there is no appetite to become a republic."

Queen Elizabeth and the Duke of Edinburgh are greeted by Helen Clark in Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Helen Clark, 2002:

""The idea of a nation such as New Zealand being ruled by a head of state some 20,000km away is absurd. "It is inevitable that New Zealand will become a republic. It is just a matter of when the New Zealand people are bothered enough to talk about it - it could be 10 years, or it could be 20 years, but it will happen."

Bill English, 2017:

"I support the monarchy. I've looked at the arguments for a republic, but I think in the long run it's important that important constitutional change comes from the people - so bottom up rather than top down.

"That is the lesson from the flag referendum. I oversaw the process for changing the flag, I voted for changing the flag. In the end, a lot of the voting became a bit of a political vehicle, probably because it was proposed by the Prime Minister.

"So I think in future that constitutional change needs to come from the will of the people."

Others:

Peter Dunne, then United Future leader. April 2009: "I am tired of politicians who say it is probably inevitable we will become a republic at some stage but who are unwilling to do anything to bring it about - that is extremely weak." Proposed a two-stage referendum, one on whether NZ should have its own head of state. If yes, proposal developed and a second referendum on whether to adopt it.

Sir Michael Cullen 2010: In a speech on constitutional reform, described himself as Labour's "token monarchist" but said New Zealand needed to make a start on law changes to be ready and able to elect our own head of state when the Queen died.