Mixed predictions for New Year's celebrations

It's a mixed bag weather-wise for New Year's around the country. Photo / Hawke's Bay Today

Now that the Christmas period is over we look ahead to our next event - New Year's Eve and New Year's Day celebrations across New Zealand.

So what's the forecast going to be? Well, in a nut-shell, 'changeable'.

It's very much like a spring set-up for places south of Taupo - with the sou'westers on New Year's Eve turning to nor'westers on New Year's Day.

That means two very different forecasts and two different sets of temperatures for each day for those regions. North of Taupo it's going to be far more settled thanks to higher air pressure over the region, which helps keep conditions more settled and stable.

A large high is remaining out in the Tasman Sea (this is very typical of El Nino, which creates more westerlies over New Zealand). This high is feeding wet weather into New South Wales but is going to bring us drier sou'westers for much of the week.

For those in dry parts of New Zealand like Northland, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa - there is no relief within the next 10 days, sorry. Whatever shower activity that does form this week will only be a drop in the bucket and that's only if you're lucky enough to get it in the first place. But cf course, for holidaymakers this is only good news.

So on New Year's Eve a southerly or sou'westerly will affect much of New Zealand - it will be lighter from Waikato and Bay of Plenty northwards and stronger from Wellington southwards. There may be an early lingering shower along the southern coasts first thing but I doubt it will be much. Temperatures will be in the late teens/20 degree mark for many south of Taupo but low to mid 20s for anywhere north of there.

Now on New Year's Day the famous nor'wester will return, becoming gusty in Southland and Otago and building during the day in Canterbury and Wellington. So this means a hot, sunny, day for many, but windy in exposed places. Those winds will ease north of about Manawatu leaving hot, sunny, mainly settled, weather for much of the North Island. Highs in the low to mid 20s, possibly late 20s across inland Hawkes Bay, Gisborne and Bay of Plenty.

January 2 looks even hotter for many eastern and northern centres too.

Check out our detailed, independent, forecast for your region on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day here.

In my next blog I'll take a look back at the top weather highlights for 2009. If you have any suggestions on what you think should be in that list, please post a comment below.