Mir's plunge puts officials on edge

We'll get about a day's warning of whether Mir will land anywhere near us, reports ANNE BESTON.

Preparations for the fiery death of the Russian space station Mir are being closely monitored by an obscure committee in the Prime Minister's Department while American entrepreneurs are offering tickets to watch Mir's plunge into the Pacific.

The ad hoc satellite re-entry committee in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, has specially re-formed for Mir's descent, expected between March 11 and 14.

Committee chair Patrick Helm says Ministry of Defence and Civil Defence are members of the committee, as is the Maritime Safety Authority and police.

"It's actually been in existence since 1978 but whenever the Government becomes aware of an important de-orbit of a satellite, this group gets together."

Mr Helm said the controlled descent would plunge Mir into the "space junkyard" between New Zealand and Chile on a latitude of 47 deg south and 140 deg west, or about 3000km east of Stewart Island.

The decrepit, 15-year-old space station is the largest object ever brought back to Earth and most of its 130 tonnes is expected to burn up in the atmosphere.

But up to 40 tonnes of debris - about the size of three city buses - could survive re-entry.

The Russians have estimated there is only a 2 to 3 per cent chance they will lose control of Mir during descent but both Japan and Canada, which could find themselves beneath one of Mir's last orbits, have expressed concerns that 700kg chunks of hot space metal could come down on citizens' heads.

"There's not a lot we can do to protect ourselves, obviously," Mr Helm said.

"But we do advise the Ministry of Civil Defence and police in the last stages, and if it looks like New Zealand could be under one of the last orbits, we give more information and pass out alerts.

"It's a matter of the last day when [the descent] will become more predictable."

One report has already gone to Prime Minister Helen Clark and another would land on her desk closer to the crash date.

Mr Helm said the Russians were giving out a lot of information because it was in their interests to keep the international community informed.

The United States has 19 space radars and telescopes world-wide to monitor the descent but only about 30 minutes will elapse from the time Mir enters the atmosphere to when it hits land or water.

Entrepreneurs say Mir's plunge will be "one of the most spectacular celestial events of the 21st century" and are selling seats at up to $23,500 on a jet set to circle the crash zone.

Passengers should be able to see "140 tonnes of man-made technology careering towards the earth in a fiery display of pyrotechnics," according to the promotional material.

But wait, there's more - a storm of fragmented solar panels, rocket engines, tubing, cabling and fuel tanks raining down in "streaming trails of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of incandescent pieces."

American Bob Citron was reported in the Guardian as saying 60 passengers had already signed up, reassured the plane would be at a safe distance.

Russia's previous attempts to dispose of dated spacecraft have caused unease.

A Soviet defence satellite plunged out of control and left radioactive debris in the Canadian Arctic in 1978.

In 1991, Mir's predecessor, Salyut 7, fell on the Andes, causing no damage or injuries but generating fears worldwide.