The cost of producing the humble Kiwi mince pie is becoming a strain for one longstanding Hawke’s Bay bakery owner.
Butter has been in the headlines recently, but the price of mince has also soared 16% in the past year, according to Statistics NZ.
One economist says he’s seeing data suggesting mince inflation is spiking at between 30% and 40% higher than a year ago.
At Woolworths Hastings on Monday, a 500g New Zealand beef mince grass-fed 5%-fat tray was $16.50 - that’s $33 a kilogram.
Other minces at the supermarket were cheaper: a 1kg New Zealand beef mince grass-fed 18%-fat tray was $21.90.
John van den Berk opened John’s Bakery and Cafe on Heretaunga St West in Hastings 34 years ago, where he’s still the master baker today.
He said soaring prices for beef and dairy products - as well as insurance, rates and electricity - were not something he could pass on to a customer and continue to trade.
A mince pie from John’s Bakery and Cafe costs $7.30.
“A lot of the cost we’re actually sucking up,” van den Berk said.
“We have put some on the customers probably about a month ago, and since then we just suck it up.”
Van den Berk said he was now dipping heavily into his KiwiSaver just to keep his business “afloat”.
According to Stats NZ, the weighted average price for beef mince increased 16% in the year from June 2024 ($18.8 per 1kg) to June 2025 ($21.73).
To get the averages, Stats NZ collects the price of beef mince from multiple stores across the country, including butchers and supermarkets, and the prices include prime and premium type mince.
ASB wealth senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said meat prices were up across the board and mince inflation was as high as 30% to 40% more than a year ago.
“The prices are high and we can see that at a wholesale level at the bank when we look at the prices that the processors are paying to buy meat or to buy animals off the farm, and we can see it in global prices as well,” he said.
“It reflects a bit of scarcity of products at a time when demand is pretty high, both here and abroad.”
Tennent-Brown said New Zealand’s beef prices, like dairy prices, are tied to the global market price.
“When we’re seeing strong demand for Kiwi meat and dairy coming from offshore, it tends to flow through,” he said.
Tennent-Brown said there was still some dust to settle from the announcement of Trump’s 15% tariff on New Zealand exports into the US before a clear picture of what the future holds could be ascertained.
The US is also New Zealand’s biggest export meat market.
Tennent-Brown said he recommended Kiwis look at using different cuts of meat, as prices can vary more week from week.
A Woolworths New Zealand spokesperson said the price of its beef had increased because of three factors.
High export demand, increased farm production costs and a reduction in supply, through land conversion to dairy and forestry, had all contributed to record prices being paid for beef, the spokesperson said.
Hawke’s Bay’s Federated Farmers provincial president Jim Galloway said the high prices were driven by the prices paid by overseas customers paying more for “our top-quality grass-fed beef”, in part because of lower production from some international suppliers.
Galloway said schedule works prices from local farmers are well above last year and finishers (those who buy animals to grow them to works weights) are paying more for the store stock from breeders who produce store stock.
“So the whole chain of supply is benefiting from the good international prices,” he said.
“The higher beef prices have been great for farmers to help recovery from a few poor years both financially and for many the hit they took from Gabrielle.
“And as farmers generally spend more if they earn more, the whole community will benefit by the multiplier effect of the increased income.”
Jack Riddell is a multimedia journalist with Hawke’s Bay Today and has worked in radio and media in Auckland, London, Berlin, and Napier.