Mike Hosking: Nats have nothing to panic about; they're riding high and well

COMMENT

You can see from a distance why John Howard thought the last election result was unjust for National.

There they sit, at 45-46% in the polls, largest party by a mile. But that's MMP.

Howard comes from a different system and political landscape, and it is what it is. There is no real point lamenting it.

But where Winston Peters was wrong in claiming at the weekend that Simon Bridges won't last is that, although Bridges' personal numbers are weak, he has two things on his side: time, and the strength of the party.

When you're number one by some margin, that gives you breathing room and confidence.

And further, if the economy slows some more and the government is held increasingly responsible for it, they're the ones in trouble, not the opposition.

National Party leader Simon Bridges walks on stage during the last day of the National Party Conference held at SkyCity. Photo / Dean Purcell

That OECD survey over the weekend that has seen us go, in the confidence stakes, from the second highest to the second lowest among 35 counties.

That's not only alarming and embarrassing, but all the evidence you need that the focus of attention is going to be increasingly on the government, not National.

Where National do have trouble is numbers, because 45% still doesn't get you to government. Even 45% plus David Seymour doesn't change that: they need help.

Now if those numbers hold, and there isn't another party being formed, where Bridges might be in trouble is if some members of his caucus start to panic and imagine that the 45% they have could be 48% if only we had a popular leader.

Whether that is true or not is highly debatable, because 45% is a very, very good number by anyone's standards, and expecting more in the sort of multi-party environment we have is an exceedingly high (if not fanciful) expectation.

If things do go sour for the government and support drifts, National might well be back to the halcyon days of nudging 50% - but if you remember there was a poll out early last year that had them on 51, even the party didn't believe it.

National Party leader Simon Bridges arrives for the 82nd National Party Conference held at SkyCity. Photo / Dean Purcell

There is a natural ceiling to a party's support and National is close to - if not at - it. The point being, you could have a combination of Nelson Mandela, Ghandi, Martin Luther King, John Kennedy, the Queen and Beyonce running the thing and you still wouldn't be looking at a lot more support.

So under that scenario, Bridges is safe. The real trick for the party, and this is why Peters said what he said, is not to sweat it.

They have nothing to panic about. They're riding high and well. The numbers tell you all you need to know about who's got the upper hand right now.