Mike Hosking: Nats conjuring up new term

Next two years are telling in Government’s chase to hold on.

This time last year we were in the wash-up of the election. National had got its third term, and actually had a majority, which was unheard of in the MMP era.

It's changed a little since then, but they still govern comfortably and a year on the talk has turned to four terms. Not many governments get four terms.

Helen Clark can tell you about that: she got three and then watched it all implode. By the time Labour got to the polls, no one was talking about four terms, just how bad the loss was going to be. That example in itself is all the evidence you need that staying in power gets harder with every year.

If you go back to the early days of this country, seven terms have been achieved, but they were different times under different systems. The trick to winning four terms is getting comfortably through three, and the polls to mark this week's anniversary tell the same story - National are travelling well.

In fact, you could argue remarkably well. Steven Joyce made a comment about the party being the envy of most others, and although that's got a touch of the "he would say that wouldn't he?" about it, it's actually true. Who wouldn't want 47 to 48 per cent support after seven years?

What's impressive is most of it is their own doing. They faced a series of hurdles that others might well have stumbled on - the GFC, the earthquake. One can only imagine what sort of state the country might be in if those two money-sapping events hadn't happened.

But in difficult days people like strong steady government and this Government provided it. Through it all, what has kept them in power and in popularity is the greatest political ingredient of all - the economy.

Give people a solid economy and they'll vote for you every time. Give people a good stable economy and you've pulled the rug out from under the opposition. When people have secure jobs, the tax rate is reasonable, their kids are happy and well educated.

When you can afford a holiday, a meal out and to replace your car, people are, by and large, content. Which in part is what has made John Key so successful. It's not like there hasn't been a pile of stuff going on around him to distract from the message but his trick has been to know that the peripheral stuff doesn't shed votes.

The headline fodder that drives the news cycle almost never causes trouble for a government. I argued this very point a year ago and the social media hate I received for it poured in. I argued that Nicky Hager's book would not make a single bit of difference on the night. Those wrapped up in it all could not contain their rage.

But they failed to see - either because they didn't want to or because they're out of touch and think what they think is what everyone thinks - that middle New Zealand is not exercised by the beltway, by the news cycle or by the headlines, but by the fundamentals.

Keep the fundamentals safe, and your government is safe.

Which brings us to the next two years. The fundamentals are in some danger. The world is in some bother. China is slower than it was. Europe has some bright spots but some major troubles.

There is debate as to where the global economy is heading. I remain optimistic but it all filters down to us and how we play in the world. And all of that filters down to how we perceive our Government. The numbers are still sound.

Growth is 2 per cent and projected to be close to 3 per cent next year. Parts of our economy - notably tourism and fruit and vege exports - are countering the dairy issues. But the polls are turning in the optimism stakes. Employers are worried about hiring and talk more of maintaining numbers as opposed to increasing them.

So the question that can be legitimately asked is, what sort of task is it to cross the line to a fourth term with a lot more economic challenges.

The other factor to any long term government's demise is complacency. You can't accuse this Government of that, but a queue will form if things slow significantly, and there isn't a perceived response.

So, much to do. The world might be a completely different place by the time the majority turn their attention to voting. You'd be hard pressed to argue the Government isn't in good shape - has no leadership issues, no rumours, no back room murmurings. Chasing a fourth term, it enters the next two years in fine form with poll numbers to back them.