One of the critical things the media largely forgot in peddling their 'let's get Simon' rhetoric is that Judith Collins isn't actually all that popular in the National Party caucus - and it's the caucus that has the votes.
It is why I originally argued for Steven Joyce or Judith Collins to replace Bill English, because my fear was they would stay 'in-house' and vote for someone they like, and someone isn't actually widely liked, loved, or understood by the voter.
The best example of that was Amy Adams, who you will note has vanished from radar ever since, and Simon Bridges. Both liked and likeable, internally. But externally with huge hurdles to climb, a hurdle in Bridges' case if you even half believe the poll, he's yet to summit.
So why shouldn't they roll Bridges, and why is this poll and its reaction a beat up?
One: the shift in numbers is highly dodgy, it's too much for no explanation.
Two: internal polling doesn't necessarily show the same thing.
Three: it's one poll and the last one was in May.
Four: even if its accurate, one poll does not a spill make.
Five: even if a spill was on, is Collins your answer? The jury is out.
Six: it's still ages until the election.
Seven: leadership spills have a history of further weakening your credibility. Ask Labour about that.
Eight: with their current numbers, the chance of a new green party, the deal with ACT, and the demise of New Zealand First, National only need 47 per cent to feel pretty good about a shot at government.
Nine: a leader is only part of the picture. The way this Government is travelling policy-wise, National can bank on a growing number of disillusioned voters.
Ten: Given the first nine, there is absolutely no need to panic.
Yet.
