Mike Hosking: Election now anyone's guess

One of Bill English's best lines at National's launch yesterday was that hard working New Zealanders are not an ATM for the Labour Party and in that I suspect is the key to success or failure in this election.

He was referring to the taxes, petrol, capital gains and water - the tax working group that really the Labour Party need to do something about.

The concept that we go into an election looking to vote for a party and not knowing specifically what they are going to do after it is not how the game is played.

National threw almost $400 million at education, digital, national standards and second languages.

All solid stuff you can barely argue with and designed to make them look like the ideas haven't run out after 9 years.

In the meantime, Labour threw $300 million at Christchurch.

Now here's how the two arguments work.

National, run the "stick with us" because you know us.

We are safe, we are competent, we run a good country and we run a good economy.

This place is a success story and who doesn't want more of that. Now remember these messages are pitched at the undecided or swing voter.

Those who have decided don't matter, if the aforementioned pitch is right up your alley then you've already worked out Nationals have your vote.

If you think all that's bollocks, we're a dysfunctional backwater where the gaps are huge and the only a few have gained anything, then you'll have lined up with the Greens or Labour some time back.

But in the middle, which is where the rich vein of votes has always been, you have the people who could just as easily vote National as Labour.

The same way we saw the Green voter return to Labour on the Turei saga.

So National's pitch is inspired to make you think, what possible reason is there to vote Labour given the stats are brilliant?

Five per cent mortgages, 4 per cent unemployment, a booming jobs market, record export returns, surpluses into the billions, less and less debt.

It's a very very solid economic story.

But here's what Labour are banking on armed with all that information, are there enough people who think - you know what, given how successful we are - why don't we spread it about a bit?

Why don't we get some people out of motels and into a state house?

Why don't we bump the benefits and the social support? It's the "feels", do enough people want the feels?

So to counter that, National are handing out money left, right and centre. The question is, is it too late?

Does it look desperate? Does it look like they're handing it out because they have to, as opposed to wanting to?

Is it enough to satiate those who want to see a social dividend paid out as a result of the economic success?

There is a tricky balance between where you look socially responsible but not be a tax spender like Labour.

That's the punt and that is why right now it's anyone's guess as to how the next 3 and a half weeks unfold.