Middle East unrest doesn't equal revolution - professor

The wave of protests across the Middle East and North Africa don't yet constitute revolution and real democratic change may be decades away, Auckland University associate professor Stephen Hoadley says.

Mr Hoadley, who specialises in international relations and foreign policy, is hopeful outcomes will mirror progressive, secular Turkey and South Korea, rather than the Islamic fundamentalism of Iran following the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade is advising New Zealanders travelling to the Middle East and North Africa to register their details on the Safetravel website www.safetravel.govt.nz, as uprisings continue to spread, inspired by recent popular protests in Egypt and Tunisia.

There has since been unrest in Bahrain, Libya, Morocco, Iran, Algeria, Djibouti, Yemen, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Sudan, Syria and the Palestinian Territories. There are reports around 200 people have been killed in Libya since protests began there on Wednesday.

MFAT is advising the 236 Kiwis registered in Bahrain and the 26 registered in Libya to avoid "all areas where protests and demonstrations may occur as they have the potential to turn violent" and to avoid all unnecessary travel. The travel advisory for Bahrain and Libya is at "high risk".

Mr Hoadley likened the protests across the region to uprisings in Europe in 1848 which he said set in motion many of the democratic and liberal changes enjoyed in the West to this day.

"This is my model for what is happening in the Middle East," he said. "I would not use the word revolution - I would use uprising."

He cautioned against expecting massive changes in the region any time soon - as those in power will strive to retain it.

"It's a long way from there to stable democracies that are to the benefit of the people. There are a lot of steps from the end of a dictatorship," he said. "It's going to take time ... I think we are talking decades."

Mr Hoadley said it did appear there was a "copycat effect", pointing to rap song Rais Lebled, which had originated in Tunisia but had become a rallying call to young people across the region.

The internet has contributed greatly to the protests, Mr Hoadley said, as the masses are able to bypass the censorship of the state-controlled media to communicate using social media such as Facebook and Twitter.

"That phenomenon is new and allows a group of disgruntled people in one country to be inspired by another uprising. They all speak Arabic - and most speak English - and can communicate with each other across borders.
"This is a unique phenomenon."

Mr Hoadley expects the protests to continue for many weeks to come.
"But will it produce long and stable change? That's where I'm not so confident."

He said the protesters should use Turkey - a secular yet predominantly Muslim state - as the model for their aims.

Mr Hoadley doubted the unrest would have great impact on the world economy, with oil prices largely unaffected so far.

"All of these uprisings are not anti-foreign or anti-capital," he said.

He said the United States' role in the region will change, noting moves into social networking to engage with the people of the Arab world.

"United States' influence will decline - but not vanish," he said.

"The US has had no hand in [the uprisings]. The people in the Middle East are saying 'hey, we did this ourselves'."

With change possible at the head of other Middle Eastern and North African states, following Tunisia and to a lesser extent Egypt, there are fears Islamic radicals could "fill the vacuum", Mr Hoadley said.

"The surprising thing is the Islamists have been far behind the scenes ... or maybe they were caught by surprise by the uprisings," he said.

"If there is an Islamist takeover of a popular movement it will get bloody ... that's the nightmare outcome.

While the dictators of some of the states may leave - including Libya's Muammar al-Gaddafi - those behind the scenes, who Mr Hoadley said in many cases wield the true power, may remain.

"Behind [the leaders] are the armies that will restore order, sometimes, as we have seen in Bahrain, violently."

Mr Hoadley said the outcome rests on the "wisdom" of current leaders to ensure peaceful transition to more progressive and democratic nations.